April 2020

Pandemic Lessons: Moving from Denial to Engagement

In a previous blog, I discussed the role of prophetic models in guiding world leaders to respond to this crisis. Here, I go to a more personal level, addressing the temptation of denial in a time of crisis. This is one of the pandemic lessons I dare not ignore. I confess this is by far my strongest tendency when the going gets tough. My first reaction is not to fight or flight but simply freeze. I retreat inwardly shielding myself from the suffering around me.

This time, with God’s help, I must do differently.

A Global Initiation Rite

Father Richard Rohr offers a provocative perspective for this pandemic. Skirting away any suggestions that this is God’s punishment on humanity, instead he sees it as a global rite of passage. It is a collective experience of suffering aiming to mature us by reminding us of our frailty. This perspective emerges from his in-depth study of male initiation ceremonies, a global phenomenon where elders teach young boys the deep truths of their culture.

As he studied these rituals, he learned they contained recurring core messages. In short, they aimed to convey the following to its initiates:

Life is hard.
You are not that important.
Your life is not about you.
You are not in control.
You are going to die.

Read this list again and pause for a moment.

In a time of greater gender equality, it is fair to ask why girls did not go through these types of ceremonies. I do not know for sure but I would venture to guess the feminine life had more natural ways to initiate them. When you are raised to serve and groomed to endure child-birth, these messages have a way of coming to you naturally. Till this day, it is usually men who need to get smacked around a bit to learn these truths lest they think too highly of themselves and, God forbid, run for president.

Going back to our time of crisis, what would this perspective mean? At the heart of it, I believe Father Rohr is inviting us to embrace this period as an opportunity for personal growth that we experience as a global community. We have all unwillingly entered this rite. Let’s receive it as an opportunity to re-center, reset and re-orient inwardly and toward each other.

When wedded with meaning, suffering can produce beautiful fruits of virtue, love and wisdom.

Memories from a Previous Crisis

When this pandemic started, it reminded me of a previous global crisis I went through. Almost two decades ago, I was a senior in college going about my business when two planes crashed into the WTC Towers in New York. That crisis hit close to home because my brother lived in Manhattan at the time and I immediately feared for his life. Thankfully, he survived unharmed even if traumatized by that horrific experience.

What I remember, however, was not the shock or concern but a persistent attempt to mentally distance myself from that reality. Once I learned my brother had survived and had a chance to see him, I jumped right back into life. I refused to spend hours watching the news from it. I never reflected on what that meant for the world or even how that could affect me. Life had to continue as planned. Nothing to see here.

In fact, I remember being bothered that my routine of classes had been disrupted. Even as my brother was a survivor, I made no attempt to connect with the pain of those in New York and of the nation in general. I didn’t even reflect theologically on it. I filed under the category of “bad people do bad things,” and that was that.

Regrettably, I missed the opportunity to enter into that global rite of initiation, share in the suffering and learn from its wisdom. I went through it and came out the the other side unchanged.

From Denial to Engagement

I decided this crisis was too important to waste. That is when I am looking for ways to step away from avoidance and denial into active engagement. One surprising gift of this time has been a flourishing in my writing. If before the crisis, I had to come up with ideas for blogs, now I can’t finish these ideas fast enough. I am still limited by the realities of shelter in place and therefore have not published significantly more. However, I sense my voice coming through more clearly.

Another practice is to contact loved ones that are far. I have done a lot more of that than I used to. Now there is the realization we couldn’t travel to see each other face-to-face. Then, the Skype or Zoom screen becomes more bearable, more cherished and all the more real. It is life-giving to see each other eyes even if it is through a 2 dimensional screen.

Finally, I have grown to empathize more with others. Gone is the usual habit to shelter myself from bad news. This is a global experience and we are all being impacted by it. There is no escaping. Even social media, in its best days, has become a true place of encounter where we sing, cry, laugh and share our sheltered lives. Whether it is through photos, tweets, videos, memes and music – they multiply and amplify our shared humanity.

This is not to say that I wake up every day cheering on the opportunity to face the unknown. There are dark days of sadness, exhaustion, anger, denial or incipient disconnection. This is a crisis after all, one that we did not choose nor one we can simply turn off when it gets uncomfortable.

Surprising gifts often come intertwined with painful losses. Hope emerges wrapped in fear for the future. Love appears in the ever threat of rejection.

Hence I invite all, in this time of social distancing, to resist the temptation of denial through generous acts of engagement.

Quarantine Cooking: When Wisdom Puts on an Apron

Patience is calm acceptance that things can happen in a different order than the one you have in your mind.
David G. Allen

An Unexpected Dialogue

In an ordinary afternoon, I felt a conversation taking place. Was it with God or only my imagination? I just felt as if wisdom had come down from somewhere and was staring at me ,ever so humorously critical, but with a glistening promise. And, I might add, with a pinch of wonder.

“Today you’re going to relearn cooking”

“Oh, is that so? Hmm, isn’t my cooking good enough?”

“It is good, but you have forgotten a simple and very important principle of cooking.”

“Hmm, and what is that?”

“To have delight while in the process. To cook is to appreciate. To cook is to wait for the proper timing, and to cut the right ingredients. Preferably methods that might take longer, but will taste as love and kindness had been added with a pinch of salt.”

“And how could this be possible? How can abstract feelings turn into ingredients?”

“Hands are carriers. They carry objects, but also carry stories. A newborn held tight, sweet strokes of assurance given by fathers and mothers, a handheld grip of a lover. These stories carry feelings, and when you cook, with patience, embracing each step, you become a storyteller.”

The Tyranny of the Practical

Living and cooking had become straining to me. Everything needed to be practical and fast. I always felt I had a clock ticking and that at any moment the alarm would yell how long I was taking and that people were hungry.

Quarantined, I started to have time.

I started to notice how my cooking wasn’t pleasurable. I noticed as well how I was dependent on methods that probably didn’t make the food tastier. If I knew ways to make food tastier and had time to create, why not do it? It would take patience, time management plus organization, and probably a total change of perspective. In the end, would it be worth it?

Do I even know how to make my own seasoning from scratch?

I sliced the garlic in tiny pieces. With a knife. I could have used three thousand devices that could have made the process take seconds, but I felt that I had to experience those long 5 minutes (maybe 2, in my mind actually it felt like 10). I put on some music, sometimes humming and swaying while tasting a hot spoon of magical sauce, just like I remembered my mom love to do. I started listening, and not just trying to get things done. I let creativity flow through my mind, through my hands. I started to use things that I wouldn’t, but because I listened, those ingredients would whisper what they needed more.

Learning to Slow Down

Humanity is acquiring all the right technology for all the wrong reasons.
R. Buckminster Fuller

Technology is not our enemy. Making things practical aren’t the villains, but forgetting the importance of waiting and the eminence of patience can be. How, if things happen in a different order than what we had planned, they can still be joyful and wonderful!

What could be the wrong reasons, and what could be the right ones?

Could simply cooking remind me of things that I had forgotten that were important?

And yet, I am no master to all these elements. Like I once said to my mother while we were discussing important things in life: “I am still learning”.

I’m learning to pick wisely, to spend time in what matters, to cut with patience and to listen to the right melody. To sway in the right tempo, and to embrace the right feelings.

STAY HOME, STAY SAFE, STAY PATIENT!

Lidia Krüger Braconnot is an adventurer and a storytelling enthusiast. Having lived in many different places, she now lives in Brazil, where she is an English teacher for all ages. She is 21 years old with a dream of expressing in beautiful detail what life is about, hoping to reach out to people in a comical and lighthearted way.

Prophetic Models : Why are Governments Telling Us to Stay Home?

In this blog, I explore the prophetic role of models in advising governments how to respond to the Covid-19 virus.

In a recent blog, I talked about the surprising upside of this crisis. In this blog, I explore the prophetic role of models in advising governments how to respond to the Covid-19 virus. While predictive modeling is already a vital part of decision making in both the private and public sector, this crisis revealed how impactful they can be. They are no longer just predictive but also prophetic models that can alter the future of a nation.

Don’t believe it? A few weeks ago, the British government was considering an alternative approach to lead the nation through this pandemic. The idea was to allow for the spread of the virus, instructing only the 70+ population and those with symptoms to isolate themselves. In this scenario, there would be no school closures, no working from home or even cancellation of mass gatherings.

The rationale was that by allowing the virus to spread, enough people would recover from it to develop herd immunity. That is, when enough people have either been vaccinated or contracted and recovered from the virus, they would protect those who had not, breaking the chain of transmission.

Yet, in March 16th, in a stunning reversal, Boris Johnson had a change of heart. He quickly joined other world leaders in calling for a suppression strategy instructing all citizens to practice social distancing. Why? In short, the government learned that as much as 24% of the population would need hospitalization which would quickly overwhelm the the nation’s healthcare system. It came from a revealing report by the Imperial College London. This report would later find its way across the ocean to inform American policy on the virus response as well.

Prophetic Models that Changed it All

Intrigued by this news and having built predictive models myself for the last 6 years, I decided to go to the source for further investigation. I was interested not only in the findings but also examining the researchers’ methodology and other insights overlooked by articles reporting on it. In the next few paragraphs, I summarize my investigation paying particular attention to the forecasting model that the report was based on.

The model analyzed the predicted outcomes of two strategies: suppression and mitigation. The first one is the more aggressive strategy adopted by places like China and many European countries in suppressing virus transmission through rigorous social distancing in order to reverse epidemic growth. The second, aims only to slow growth, mitigating its worse effects by quarantining only at risk populations and those presenting symptoms.

The model went on to analyze the impact of a combination of NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) by the governments. Mitigation focused on applying case isolation, home quarantine and social distancing only for those who are 70+. This strategy would cut fatalities in half but still result in over 1 million deaths in the US and overwhelm ICU beds 8 times over at highest peak demand! Therefore this option was deemed unacceptable.

Estimating the Impact of Suppression

While saving lives continues to be at forefront, the focus turned to a scenario in which the country’s health care system could withstand the increase in cases during the virus peak infection phase. The model simulations found that a combination of 1) general population social distancing; 2) schools and university closures; 3) home quarantine; and 4) case isolation of those infected was the best alternative to achieve this goal. These measures would have to be in place for a sustained period of time.

How long? The scientists ran a few scenarios but the most feasible one was where social distancing and school and university closures were triggered by threshold. That is, when the number of ICU cases must be at 60, 100 or 200 per week before the policies go into effect. This scenario assumes this triggering would be in place for a period of two years or until a vaccine is developed. The numbers below for the suppression scenario assume a trigger of 400 ICU cases per week.

Strategy	Estimated Deaths GB	Estimated Deaths US
Do Nothing	510K	2.2M
Mitigation	255K	1.1M
Suppression	39K	168K

Estimated fatalities based on the Report Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand.

As shown in the table above, the model predicts significant decreases in fatalities. In doing so, it makes a clear case as to why these governments should apply these drastic measures.

Certainly, the model’s scope is limited. It does not look into the economic impact these shut downs or the indirect fatalities of those that cannot use an overwhelmed health care system. It also does not take into account every mitigating factor that could accelerate or hinder the virus spread. With that said, it is robust enough to make a compelling case for action. That is all we can expect from a good prophetic model.

Models as Modern Prophets

The Hebrew scriptures tells us of prophets who warned their communities of impending doom. One good example of that is the short book of Jonah. In the story, God summons Jonah to speak to the city Nineveh. After a few detours, one which involved spending some time in a fish’s belly, the prophet arrives at the city. There he delivers a simple message: “Change your ways or face destruction.”

Just like a modern forecasting model, the prophet was showing the people of Nineveh a picture of the future if they remained in their ways. He was giving them the “do nothing” or “keep status quo” scenario. He also offered an alternative scenario, where they changed their minds and opted for righteous living. In this scenario, the city would save lives and retain their prosperity.

To the prophet’s own chagrin, the city actually listened. They changed their ways and therefore altered their future. They weighed the consequence of doing nothing versus changing and decided to opt for the latter. Hence, the story tells us that God spared the city who heeded the prophets’ forecast of impending doom.

The model described above played a similar role of warning about the cost of doing nothing. Yet, instead of fiery sermons, it used the mighty power of number. As modern prophets, the scientists from the Imperial College warned leaders in Britain and the US of a collapsed healthcare system and mounting casualties. Prophetic models vividly described the cost of doing nothing and also paint a picture of their altered future. In the model’s assessment, action was imperative and thankfully, these political leaders, like those of Nineveh, listened.

What if the Model is wrong?

Just like in the case of Nineveh, the risk of listening is that the initial prediction could be wrong all along. In fact, the good prophet does their job best when they challenge decision makers to prove their numbers wrong. The point is not to forecast outcomes accurately, even though that is an important part of a rigorous model. The main point is to paint a believable picture of an undesirable future enough to move people to action.

Successful prophetic models are not the one that predict accurately but the ones that lead the community towards a better future. Furthermore, the mounting casualties of the last weeks give proof that this pandemic is not just your average cold. I can’t even imagine how worse they would have been without the concerted global effort of social distancing. Yet, when this crisis is over, many will look at the diminished numbers and wonder if it was all worth it.

This is where I can point to this imperfect but rigorous model to say that the policies put in place will likely save 2 million lives in the US and 500 thousand in Britain!

If that is not a good outcome, I don’t know what is.

A Pandemic Turn of Events

It all started very quietly and hidden. It felt as if it was a world away.

Who could have known that a tiny, unwelcomed intruder could change everything so abruptly?

Who could have known that everything that I had faith in, all I was working for, everything that I envisioned for the future, could change in a matter of days?

I remember coming home from a job meeting. There details were exposed about the challenges the company would be facing inevitably, as the crisis was spreading throughout the country. All the fatalities, numbers and percentages were running through my mind as if a pandora box had just been opened. I honestly hadn’t considered what was going on till then. I sat down on my bed, trying to get a hold of sanity as if she had run for a coffee break.

“What could happen? What could change? Will I get infected, will I infect others?”

“God, will I die?”

I remember feeling claustrophobic and not knowing for sure if I had ever felt that way. I felt my heart racing, the pressure made my chest ache. I felt the walls closing in. My comfortable bedroom turned into a “quarantine confinement”. I hadn’t felt this anxiety for years. I had long forgotten what it felt like and how my body reacted under so much pressure. The longer I questioned myself of my own safety and if I had washed my hands before entering the room, the more made me expectant of inevitable doom. I led myself to outrageous conclusions.

I had let fear take control.

Until I heard the faintest voice whisper inside of me:

“Why do you fear? Have I ever once left your side? If I haven’t, why would I now?”

Hot tears started to melt from my eyelashes while I felt the warmest feeling.

For years anxiety had been a constant pain, sometimes would come without warning, making me question through raggedy breaths everything I believed in. Always making me wonder: “Am I loved? Am I safe? Will things be better? “

Through the years I had learned that trusting God with my future would cost me everything, but in return he would embrace me with peace, love and courage. Anxiety would pass by, but I felt rooted. Truths that could not be shaken held on to me. I learned that even though I would feel weak at times, all I had to do was take one step at a time. Close my eyes. Count to ten. Remember all the precious things in life I cherished, and let him take control.

Everything was under control, I had it all planned out. My week was perfectly squeaky organized. Procrastination had taken a terrible blow that month until a huge pandemic turn of events forced me to change things a bit. It made me look into myself more intently. It made me appreciate my family, my wonderful grandparents that inspire me to constantly reinvent myself into greatness. It made me even more sure of the decisions I had made until now, and made me wonder if I could make wiser decisions for tomorrow.

STAY HOME, STAY SAFE!!

___________________________________________________________

Month: April 2020