climate change Archives

Future Scenario: Humanity Rises to Address Climate Change

In a previous blog, we introduced our first scenario for the AI Futures project. Here we present our second scenario, Planetary Regeneration, which envisions high geopolitical cooperation that rises to meet the challenge of climate change. This hopeful scenario is not without its painful chapters yet it illustrates a viable path to a flourishing future.

Also, please be sure to check out our AI 2045 Writing Contest. This will be one of the scenarios used for the stories.

Every crisis is an invitation for change. Death and destruction often come before renewal can begin. 2025, later known as the Year of Reckoning, rocks the planet to its core. Climate change chaos comes early with massive floods, droughts, deadly hurricanes, and Tsunamis. Furthermore, acidification of significant portions of the ocean causes massive extinction of marine life and serious disruption to coastal economies along with food shortage.

While all these things were happening more frequently, the intensity and relentlessness of 2025 were unheard of. Modern civilization had never experienced such instability before which may explain the unraveling that followed.

Climate chaos rocked the geopolitical system sending the world economy into a nosedive. Pervasive disruption in the supply chain sent food soaring. Fortune 500 companies collapsed overnight unable to come through with their commitments to debtors and employees. The financial system collapsed as millions orchestrate a sudden run-on-banks desperate for cash. Unemployment reaches 30% in major areas of the world. Most communities experience chaos and violence where the market is no longer able to regulate day-to-day transactions. Cities across Latin America become battle zones run by gangs and militias as governments are unable to pay for standing police forces.

Fragile regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Central America descend into bloody civil wars. While middle-income and rich countries’ government hold, there are pockets of anarchy everywhere with a steep increase in crime and lawlessness. Scarcity of food, jobs, and basic services rekindle old wounds of inequality and racial strife. In collapsing economic systems, the battle between the haves and have-nots violently played out on the streets.

Economic armageddon and localized anarchy eventually leads to a nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan. Decades-old grievances over the partition that happened nearly a century earlier combined with extreme drought exacerbated animosity in the region which quickly escalates into armed conflict. The world watches in horror as Karachi is decimated by an atomic bomb killing half of its population. Pakistan retaliates hitting Delhi with a powerful bomb that kills millions. Before things get worse a UN coalition led by US, China, Britain, and Russia descend on the region to ensure the war stops. A treaty is signed and an UN-led multinational army is stationed in the region to ensure peace is maintained.

Dall-e impressionist rendition of global cooperation

A Reeling world rally behind an UN-led coalition to rebuild the affected nations and ensure global cooperation and sustainability becomes paramount. In an unprecedented move, the UN general assembly votes for a 30 day global period of mourning to bury the dead from the war and natural disasters which later were reported to reach 100 million. A long period of mourning inaugurates 2026 when for a whole month, the world experiences a voluntary COVID-like stoppage.

Transportation is kept to a minimum along with the essential services. It is also a time of reflection where a global consensus emerges that the world politico-economic system must undergo sweeping change. A summit is called where all head-of-state converge in New York to draw out plans for a new economy to emerge. With the image of nuclear devastation fresh in their minds, humanity goes to work to re-imagine a new social order.

The global commons embarks on a 20-year plan to regenerate the planet. At the heart of the plan is a resolve to not let the 100 million fatalities of 2025 be in vain. In the depths of grief, humanity enters a liminal space and a global consciousness emerges permeating large swaths of the population. While some resist cooperation, a courageous remnant rallies around a cry for regeneration.

AI development is not immune to the year of reckoning. As part of the rebuilding of the social order, AI research undergoes a complete re-prioritization. In a 2026 global AI summit, industry leaders are joined by policymakers, clergy, and civic leaders to re-align AI priorities. At this gathering a global fund is established for research in 6 key areas 1) Green AI; 2) Finance AI; 3) AI Education; 4) AI Health; 5) Governance AI (explainable and anti-corruption) 6) General AI (project GAIA). Funded by corporations and world governments, grants are made available for research under the condition that the findings are shared widely and transparently. A ban is established on AI warfare. They also opt for a global tax on robotic automation to fund massive programs to re-tool displaced workers.

The human metanoia starts paying off as early as 2033. After 7 grueling years of rebuilding, re-directing, and reforming, a globally coordinated effort to move countries to a circular (doughnut economy) economy takes hold. Global warming halts at 1.5 while distributive economies start ensuring no one gets dropped from the donut bottom half. There is still inequality but the basic needs of food, housing, basic healthcare, and education are mostly addressed.

Dall-e rendition of beauty from ashes using Van Gogh’s style

Global cooperation becomes the norm and national allegiances are slowly replaced by regional commonwealths based more on biome similarities than political constructs. International zones are established around the main ports of entry to the West in the Mediterranean and the US southern border. Opportunity cities are erected to receive migrants coming North giving them enough support and preparation for either a migration to a new home or a return to their place of origin.

The Catholic church follows Pope Francis’ lead. Inspired by Laudato si, the church takes a decisive turn towards dialogue with other religions, a greater focus on earthcare and service to the poor. In a watershed event, women are allowed to be priests and in 2043, the first woman pope emerges. This reform is not without turmoil. Internal conservative factions threaten to break off and some dioceses keep to traditional ways in open defiance of Roman leadership. Jesuits and Dominicans turn more conservative as a counterweight to Franciscan dominance. On the ground, mass attendance and baptism decline globally with the exception of Sub-Saharan Africa and pockets in Asia. In the US and Europe, small study groups, inspired by the “comunidades de base” pop up all over providing needed liturgical innovation and a strengthened focus on environmental and equity activism. By 2045, they amount to a significant and growing minority whose influence spills way beyond its numbers.

In spite of effervescent renewal movements in the fringes, mainline attendance, and financial clout diminishes over time. Many churches, seminaries, and parachurch ministries that were dependent on the parish system collapsed as greying congregations do not rejuvenate. Buildings turn into libraries, museums, community centers, and businesses. The only exception is large urban cathedrals that are able to wade through the crisis. Sub-Saharan Africa also follows an outlier path, where congregations follow more native liturgy and seek to distance themselves from the dying institutions of the North.

After the year of reckoning, Evangelicals undergo a deep metanoia turning away from dispensational fears to an Isaiah 9-inspired call to care for the earth. Missions expand to include environmental work. While still holding to a traditional view of the Bible, influential pastors lead the way to the greening of evangelicalism. Pentecostals dive deeper into mysticism and more nature-friendly spiritual practices.

Sunday church attendance declines but weekly events bring new demographics into the fold as congregations experience deep transformation. Solar panels, workspaces, and community gardens become commonplace. Climate deniers become a minority of holdouts in rural and suburban pockets. Evangelicals embrace the switch to digital forms of gathering creating strong global networks to spread a more green-conscious gospel.

In spite of tremendous green progress in institutional Christianity, the fringes continue to grow steadily in this period as many decide that organized Christianity is no longer an option but Jesus is still “alright with them.” Without coalescing around any one movement, this growing group makes its presence known first in Europe and North America, eventually in Latin America, pockets of Asia, and urban areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. They grow along with the global middle class and pursue spiritual practices mediated primarily through digital means. These are also active in the metaverse where they experiment with VR/AR and AI-assisted faith practices. They are both reviled and admired by mainstream Christianity and mostly align with a greener faith focusing on the connection of all things.

Future Scenario: A Divided World With Delayed Climate Change

In the last few months, we have been busy working on a book project to describe plausible futures in the intersection of AI and faith. After some extensive brainstorming, the scenarios are finally starting to come alive (need a refresher on the project click here). After selecting our macro drivers, we have settled on the foundations for our 4 scenarios that form the backdrop for the stories to be written. Here is what they look like:

Each quadrant represents the combination of drivers that undergirds that scenario. For example, in the Q1 scenario, we have National (divided geopolitical system) Green (lower climate change impact). In short, this represents a future where the effects of climate change are delayed or lower than expected but where cooperation among nations is worse than it is today. How can such a combination even be possible?

Now that the parameters are set, the fun part of describing the scenarios can start. In this exercise, we try to imagine a future that fits within these parameters. For Q1, we imagine the global order deteriorating as nations turn inward. On the climate change side, we see a better or delayed outcome even if that seems counter-intuitive. How can a divided world somehow escape the worse of climate change? These difficult questions create the tensions from which creativity can flow.

What does that look like? Before a full description of the National Green scenario, let’s kick it off with a poem that evokes the feeling of this world.

Repent Before it’s Too Late

A world that hesitates
like a wave in the acidifying sea
Tossed by unharnessed winds
Shifting from action to inaction

Division cuts deep
Why can’t we come together?
The arguing continues
Polar caps whiter

Build up, tear down
Hot summers linger
“Each to its own” rules the day
Parochial thinking
Global shrinking

AI advances by competition
Slowed by economic stagnation
Focusing on security and independence
It scarcely brings real transformation

National colors of allegiance
Taint Green Xianity
into a shade of brown
of scattered complacency

Wedded to their turfs
the church keeps Christ divided
Petty speculations
Keep clergy from coordination

Humanity stands at the valley of decision
Will it choose life
Or deadly, slow oblivion?

Photo by Victor on Unsplash

Gradual change can come too little too late. This scenario is based mostly on a continuation of the present. The 20s decade witnessed gradual climate decay with growing local and regional challenges. The geopolitical order drags along as US and China become major poles of influence, followed by the EU. Polarization within countries increases as political regimes oscillate between democracy and authoritarianism. This vacillation in direction stifles international coordination on climate leading to increased regionalization. In 2028, the Paris agreement collapses yearly climate conferences stop as the US, China, India, and Russia pull out from conversations.

By 2030, climate change is undeniable, but the lack of international cooperation on how to address it leads to scattered and uncoordinated efforts. Powerful nations think in terms of “energy independence” which ensures that fossil fuels remain an option for many even if they do not play the same role as in the past century. Mother nature seems patient with humanity, giving gentle reminders for them to mend their ways in the way of increased floods, droughts, and the melting of the ice caps. Yet, the gradual impact is scarcely enough to jolt humanity out of its enchanted oblivion. Affected areas in the developing world lack the clout and the resources to catch the world’s attention. The overall sense is that if we could just figure out how to work together, maybe we could avoid the worse.

As the 2040’s begin, a growing portion of the population no longer believes in stopping climate change. The hope now is simply to stem and adapt to the gradual but decisively transforming effect of a warming planet. In 2045, as the temperature rises by 2-degree celsius, well beyond UN goals, humanity hits a decision point. It must repent before it is too late. Yet, can it come together as a unified front? Can humanity heed nature’s call to repentance or will they be betrayed by half-measures that can no longer prevent the worse? Will it turn a corner or slowly descend into a Malthusian trap?

Nationalism leads to competition rather than cooperation. Tech development accelerates due to a tech “arms race” as nations strive for energy independence and the superiority of AI, supercomputers, weapons, and communications. While generalized war is absent in this period, there is a growing build-up of arms. This overall climate of mistrust guides and hamstrings national investments in tech. Tech dev + adoption is characterized more by competition and parallel acceleration than by shared research or resources. Cybersecurity becomes more of an emphasis here than in other scenarios.

AI adoption and development are uneven as international cooperation wanes. For example, AI justice slows downs as interests in this area are overshadowed by security concerns. Digital assistants take hold but increasingly become an artifact for developed nations with little use to the global south. Deepfakes and text generation develop more towards political propaganda within regions. The Metaverse mirrors the trend toward nationalism becoming more regionalized rather than the global commons it promised to be. AI/VR advances here take hold in the western versions of the metaverse and make some progress in China. The rest of the world is mostly cut off from it. Green AI advances within the confines of research institutions and government-funded labs in western nations. The benefits don’t trickle down to the global south.

Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash

Christianity mirrors many realities of this divided world. The Catholic church becomes more traditionalist and more distributed, therefore less tied to Rome. Even so, the Vatican emerges as a haven for cooperation in a regionalizing world. A string of progressive popes speaks up for the environment following Pope Francis’s lead. Yet, strong conservative factions, more in line with Pope Benedict, hold increasing power both in the West and in the global south. Green consciousness is present but not a forefront preoccupation for traditionalists that remain caught up in theological and liturgical debates.

Mainline Protestants doubled down on green aspects of Christianity but without the evangelistic component. The focus is more on education than pushing Christian people to action. Their influence wane as their decline in the West continues. They are also unable to gain a foothold in the global south being no match for evangelicals who by now are well-established even as their growth slows down.

Evangelical Christianity in the US takes up the green consciousness, wedded to a national push for energy independence. Good eco-theology comes in through the back door, so to speak, marshaled to support US national interests. Overall green consciousness in culture is embraced and evangelicals attempt to use this as an evangelism tool–“look how Christianity does such a good job of advocating for a green, sustainable world”. Emphasis on positive comparison between Christianity and other religions in this regard: “Christians are more green than Muslims, Hindus, etc.” captures a bit of the mindset. While greener, they remain militant and disinterested in interfaith dialogue. Missionary networks endure even in a more divided world but the focus continues on personal salvation, with a bit of green consciousness on the side.

Christian roots of green consciousness find independent expression, less tied to mainline church or institutional Christianity. Organizations like CTA, Biologos, EACH, and others grow, but become more secularly focused and theologically diffuse as a result. They fail to coalesce around common causes and weakened global cooperation ensuring its impact is also limited and only a shadow of its potential. While emerging as a viable alternative to organized Xianity, its lack of cohesion translates into multifold affinity groups that coalesce around narrow missions rather than a movement with a broad vision for transformation.

Why ‘Don’t Look Up’ Falls Flat on Climate Change

A while back, I noticed “Don’t Look Up” at the top of the Netflix rankings. Considering the star-studded cast, I was excited to watch the comedy with my wife. I could not have been more disappointed. The long-winded satire missed many opportunities only accomplishing in repeating Hollywood caricature images of the last president and his supporters. With that said, this is not the first movie that I did not like. What surprised me, however, and made me open an exception to write about a movie I disliked was the passionate reaction I was getting from my lone FB comment. More importantly, what struck me was how many respondents saw it as a good metaphor for the climate change crisis.

In this blog, I would contend the exact opposite: the movie did a great disservice for raising awareness and affecting environmental change. It did so, not just because of its flat jokes but because it framed the issue wrongly, only serving to confirm the prejudices against Hollywood activism – namely, that it is shallow, misguided, and most often, ineffective. In short, ‘Don’t Look Up’ misses the point on Climate Change.

Before you tune out thinking you were trapped into reading a climate denier diatribe, let me introduce myself. I have written before here about the importance of making the environment our top priority. My commitment goes beyond writing. Our household composts nearly 80-90% of our non-animal food waste goes back to the earth. I drive a Plug-in Hybrid and solar panels will soon be placed in our rooftops.

I don’t say this to brag but only to make a point that there can be disagreement even within those who support the bold climate change action. This is not a binary world and I hope by now you can slow down and read what I have to say. I write this not because I don’t care about climate change but precisely because I do.

Trailer from Youtube

Framing the Issue Wrongly

Now that we got our introductions out of the way let me introduce the central point here. To use an analogy of a cataclysmic disaster 6 months from now to convince people about climate change misses the mark because it reduces it to a one-time event. This is hardly what is happening. Our climate crisis is not a premonition for an upcoming doomsday. Instead, it is a complex and gradual problem which ramifications we hardly understand. It does not mean it is not serious, just that real change requires long-term planning and commitment.

If anything, the movie exposed America’s inability to inspire grand ideas and engage in long-term plans. The problem with climate denial is not just that it ignores the facts but also that it demonstrates fatally selfish short-termism. We are simply unable to think beyond a 4-year election cycle or even the next year. Instead of working towards long-term plans we instead try to reduce the problem into one cataclysmic event through cheap comedy that only feeds into political polarization.

What about urgency? It is true that the window is closing for us to meet UN temperature increase goals. In that sense, there is a parallel with an impending disaster. With that said, while the urgency is real, addressing it is a lot more complex than shooting a meteor off-course. Hence, my concern is sounding a general alarm and labeling anyone who ignores it as an idiot is not very productive.

Top-down vs Grassroots Change

According to ‘Don’t Look Up’, while climate denial is a generalized problem, it is particularly acute among Silicon Valley and the political elite. They take a light jab at the media which is rather ironic, given who is talking. It also critiques recent billionaires’ efforts to reach space as a glorified act of escapism.

Not to say that their criticism here is unwarranted. I must admit that Meryl Streep as a Trump-like character had its funny moments. The memory of last year’s stupidity and cruel incompetence is still vivid. Almost too real to even be funny. The Tech Tycon character also had its moment, constantly looking for ways to profit from earth’s misfortunes. This is not too far from Big Tech’s mentality of technologizing their way out of any problem. That is, they are constantly seeking to fit a technological hammer to problems that require a scalpel.

Photo by Lina Trochez on Unsplash

With that said, the movie again misses the point. The change we need to address climate change must start at the grassroots and then makes its way to the top. If we continue to look at the centers of power for solutions, we will be in bad shape. Elon Musk made the electric car cool. That is progress but it is a bit disheartening that it took sleek design and neighbor envy to get people interested in this technology. An electric future powered by Tesla may be better than the one offered by other carmakers but that is still short of the change we need.

As long as American suburbs lie undisturbed with their gigantic SUVs spewing pollution in school car lines, we have a long way to go. The change needed is cultural. We need something that goes deeper than “scaring people” into doing good things. We need instead to articulate an attractive vision that will compel large segments of society to commit to sustained, long-term change.

Conclusion

You may say that I am taking this movie too seriously. Comedies are not meant to be political manifestos and will often get a pass in how they accomplish their goals. That may very well be the case. My goal here is not to change your mind in regards to the movie but instead to use this cultural phenomenon as a way to open up a wider conversation about our current predicament.

While our environmental crisis is dire, we need a bigger vision of flourishing to address it. It is not about an impending doom but a warning that we need to change our relationship with our planet. Instead of focusing on those who cannot see it yet, why not show them a vision of flourishing for the planet that they can get behind?

The work for the flourishing of all life requires a long-range view so we can engage in the hard work needed ahead of us. If all this movie does is to bring the conversation back to this issue, then that’s progress. In that sense, ‘Don’t Look Up’ may not be a complete loss on the cause to address climate change. Even if it misses the point, it hopefully makes people think.

And of course, watch out for the Broteroc!

How AI and Faith Communities Can Empower Climate Resilience in Cities

AI technologies continue to empower humanity for good. In a previous blog, we explored how AI was empowering government agencies to fight deforestation in the Amazon. In this blog, we discuss the role AI is playing to build climate resilience in cities. We will also look at how faith communities can use AI-enabled microgrids to serve communities hit by climate disassters.

A Changing Climate Puts Cities in Harm way.

I recently listened to an insightful Technopolis podcast on how cities are preparing for an increased incidence of natural disasters. The episode discussed manifold ways city leaders are using technology to prepare, predict and mitigate the impact of climate events. This is a complex challenge that requires a combination of good governance, technological tools, and planning to tackle.

Climate resilience is not just about decreasing carbon footprint, it is also about preparing for the increased incidence of extreme weather. Whether there are fires in California, Tifoons in East Asia, or severe droughts in Northern Africa, the planet is in for a bumpy ride in the coming decades. They will also exacerbate existing problems such as air pollution, water scarcity and heat diseases in urban areas. Governments and civic society groups need to start bracing for this reality by taking bold preventive steps in the present.

Cities illustrate the costs of delaying action on climate change by enshrining resource-intensive infrastructure and behaviors. The choices cities make today will determine their ability to handle climate change and reap the benefits of resource-efficient growth. Currently, 51% of the world’s population lives in cities and within a generation, an estimated two-thirds of the world’s population will live in cities. Hence, addressing cities’ vulnerabilities will be crucial for human life on the planet.

Photo by Karim MANJRA on Unsplash

AI and Climate Resilience

AI is a powerful tool to build climate resilience. We can use it to understand our current reality better, predict future weather events, create new products and services, and minimize human impact. By doing so, we can not only save and improve lives but also create a healthier world while also making the economy more efficient.

Deep learning, for example, enables better predictions and estimates of climate change than ever before. This information can be used to identify major vulnerabilities and risk zones. For example, in the case of fires, better prediction can not only identify risk areas but also help understand how it will spread in those areas. As you can imagine, predicting the trajectory of a fire is a complex task that involves a plethora of variables related to wind, vegetation, humidity, and other factors

The Gifts of Satellite Imagery

Another crucial area in that AI is becoming essential is satellite imagery. Research led by Google, the Mila Institute and the German Aerospace Center harness AI to develop and make sense of extensive datasets on Earth. This in turn empowers us to better understand climate change from a global perspective and to act accordingly.

Combining integrated global imagery with sophisticated modeling capabilities gives communities at risk precious advance warning to prepare. Governments can work with citizens living in these areas to strengthen their ability to mitigate extreme climate impacts. This will become particularly salient in coastal communities that should see their shores recede in the coming decades.

This is just one example of how AI can play a prominent role in climate resilience. A recent paper titled “Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning,” revealed 13 areas where ML can be developed. They include but are not limited to energy consumption, CO2 removal, education, solar energy, engineering, and finance. Opportunities in these areas include the creation of new low-carbon materials, better monitoring of deforestation, and cleaner transport.

Microgrids and Faith Communities

If climate change is the defining test of our generation, then technology alone will not be enough. As much as AI can help find solutions, the threat calls for collective action at unprecedented levels. This is both a challenge and an opportunity for faith communities seeking to re-imagine a future where their relevance surpasses the confines of their pews.

Thankfully, faith communities already play a crucial role in disaster relief. Their buildings often double as shelter and service centers when calamity strikes. Yet, if climate-related events will become more frequent, these institutions must expand their range of services offered to affected populations.

An example of that is in the creation of AI-managed microgrids. They are small, easily controllable electricity systems consisting of one or more generating units connected to nearby users and operated locally. Microgrids contain all the elements of a complex energy system, but because they maintain a balance between production and consumption, they operate independently of the grid. These systems work well with renewable energy sources further decreasing our reliance on fossil fuels

When climate disaster strikes, one of the first things to go is electricity. What if houses of worship, equipped with microgrids, become the places to go for those out of power? When the grid fails, houses of worship could become the lifeline for a neighborhood helping impacted populations communicate with family, charge their phones, and find shelter from cold nights. Furthermore, they could sell their excess energy units in the market finding new sources of funding for their spiritual mission.

Microgrids in churches, synagogues, and mosques – that’s an idea the world can believe in. It is also a great step towards climate resilience.

Tag: climate change