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Prophetic Models : Why are Governments Telling Us to Stay Home?

In this blog, I explore the prophetic role of models in advising governments how to respond to the Covid-19 virus.

In a recent blog, I talked about the surprising upside of this crisis. In this blog, I explore the prophetic role of models in advising governments how to respond to the Covid-19 virus. While predictive modeling is already a vital part of decision making in both the private and public sector, this crisis revealed how impactful they can be. They are no longer just predictive but also prophetic models that can alter the future of a nation.

Don’t believe it? A few weeks ago, the British government was considering an alternative approach to lead the nation through this pandemic. The idea was to allow for the spread of the virus, instructing only the 70+ population and those with symptoms to isolate themselves. In this scenario, there would be no school closures, no working from home or even cancellation of mass gatherings.

The rationale was that by allowing the virus to spread, enough people would recover from it to develop herd immunity. That is, when enough people have either been vaccinated or contracted and recovered from the virus, they would protect those who had not, breaking the chain of transmission.

Yet, in March 16th, in a stunning reversal, Boris Johnson had a change of heart. He quickly joined other world leaders in calling for a suppression strategy instructing all citizens to practice social distancing. Why? In short, the government learned that as much as 24% of the population would need hospitalization which would quickly overwhelm the the nation’s healthcare system. It came from a revealing report by the Imperial College London. This report would later find its way across the ocean to inform American policy on the virus response as well.

Prophetic Models that Changed it All

Intrigued by this news and having built predictive models myself for the last 6 years, I decided to go to the source for further investigation. I was interested not only in the findings but also examining the researchers’ methodology and other insights overlooked by articles reporting on it. In the next few paragraphs, I summarize my investigation paying particular attention to the forecasting model that the report was based on.

The model analyzed the predicted outcomes of two strategies: suppression and mitigation. The first one is the more aggressive strategy adopted by places like China and many European countries in suppressing virus transmission through rigorous social distancing in order to reverse epidemic growth. The second, aims only to slow growth, mitigating its worse effects by quarantining only at risk populations and those presenting symptoms.

The model went on to analyze the impact of a combination of NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) by the governments. Mitigation focused on applying case isolation, home quarantine and social distancing only for those who are 70+. This strategy would cut fatalities in half but still result in over 1 million deaths in the US and overwhelm ICU beds 8 times over at highest peak demand! Therefore this option was deemed unacceptable.

Estimating the Impact of Suppression

While saving lives continues to be at forefront, the focus turned to a scenario in which the country’s health care system could withstand the increase in cases during the virus peak infection phase. The model simulations found that a combination of 1) general population social distancing; 2) schools and university closures; 3) home quarantine; and 4) case isolation of those infected was the best alternative to achieve this goal. These measures would have to be in place for a sustained period of time.

How long? The scientists ran a few scenarios but the most feasible one was where social distancing and school and university closures were triggered by threshold. That is, when the number of ICU cases must be at 60, 100 or 200 per week before the policies go into effect. This scenario assumes this triggering would be in place for a period of two years or until a vaccine is developed. The numbers below for the suppression scenario assume a trigger of 400 ICU cases per week.

Strategy	Estimated Deaths GB	Estimated Deaths US
Do Nothing	510K	2.2M
Mitigation	255K	1.1M
Suppression	39K	168K

Estimated fatalities based on the Report Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand.

As shown in the table above, the model predicts significant decreases in fatalities. In doing so, it makes a clear case as to why these governments should apply these drastic measures.

Certainly, the model’s scope is limited. It does not look into the economic impact these shut downs or the indirect fatalities of those that cannot use an overwhelmed health care system. It also does not take into account every mitigating factor that could accelerate or hinder the virus spread. With that said, it is robust enough to make a compelling case for action. That is all we can expect from a good prophetic model.

Models as Modern Prophets

The Hebrew scriptures tells us of prophets who warned their communities of impending doom. One good example of that is the short book of Jonah. In the story, God summons Jonah to speak to the city Nineveh. After a few detours, one which involved spending some time in a fish’s belly, the prophet arrives at the city. There he delivers a simple message: “Change your ways or face destruction.”

Just like a modern forecasting model, the prophet was showing the people of Nineveh a picture of the future if they remained in their ways. He was giving them the “do nothing” or “keep status quo” scenario. He also offered an alternative scenario, where they changed their minds and opted for righteous living. In this scenario, the city would save lives and retain their prosperity.

To the prophet’s own chagrin, the city actually listened. They changed their ways and therefore altered their future. They weighed the consequence of doing nothing versus changing and decided to opt for the latter. Hence, the story tells us that God spared the city who heeded the prophets’ forecast of impending doom.

The model described above played a similar role of warning about the cost of doing nothing. Yet, instead of fiery sermons, it used the mighty power of number. As modern prophets, the scientists from the Imperial College warned leaders in Britain and the US of a collapsed healthcare system and mounting casualties. Prophetic models vividly described the cost of doing nothing and also paint a picture of their altered future. In the model’s assessment, action was imperative and thankfully, these political leaders, like those of Nineveh, listened.

What if the Model is wrong?

Just like in the case of Nineveh, the risk of listening is that the initial prediction could be wrong all along. In fact, the good prophet does their job best when they challenge decision makers to prove their numbers wrong. The point is not to forecast outcomes accurately, even though that is an important part of a rigorous model. The main point is to paint a believable picture of an undesirable future enough to move people to action.

Successful prophetic models are not the one that predict accurately but the ones that lead the community towards a better future. Furthermore, the mounting casualties of the last weeks give proof that this pandemic is not just your average cold. I can’t even imagine how worse they would have been without the concerted global effort of social distancing. Yet, when this crisis is over, many will look at the diminished numbers and wonder if it was all worth it.

This is where I can point to this imperfect but rigorous model to say that the policies put in place will likely save 2 million lives in the US and 500 thousand in Britain!

If that is not a good outcome, I don’t know what is.

A Pandemic Turn of Events

It all started very quietly and hidden. It felt as if it was a world away.

Who could have known that a tiny, unwelcomed intruder could change everything so abruptly?

Who could have known that everything that I had faith in, all I was working for, everything that I envisioned for the future, could change in a matter of days?

I remember coming home from a job meeting. There details were exposed about the challenges the company would be facing inevitably, as the crisis was spreading throughout the country. All the fatalities, numbers and percentages were running through my mind as if a pandora box had just been opened. I honestly hadn’t considered what was going on till then. I sat down on my bed, trying to get a hold of sanity as if she had run for a coffee break.

“What could happen? What could change? Will I get infected, will I infect others?”

“God, will I die?”

I remember feeling claustrophobic and not knowing for sure if I had ever felt that way. I felt my heart racing, the pressure made my chest ache. I felt the walls closing in. My comfortable bedroom turned into a “quarantine confinement”. I hadn’t felt this anxiety for years. I had long forgotten what it felt like and how my body reacted under so much pressure. The longer I questioned myself of my own safety and if I had washed my hands before entering the room, the more made me expectant of inevitable doom. I led myself to outrageous conclusions.

I had let fear take control.

Until I heard the faintest voice whisper inside of me:

“Why do you fear? Have I ever once left your side? If I haven’t, why would I now?”

Hot tears started to melt from my eyelashes while I felt the warmest feeling.

For years anxiety had been a constant pain, sometimes would come without warning, making me question through raggedy breaths everything I believed in. Always making me wonder: “Am I loved? Am I safe? Will things be better? “

Through the years I had learned that trusting God with my future would cost me everything, but in return he would embrace me with peace, love and courage. Anxiety would pass by, but I felt rooted. Truths that could not be shaken held on to me. I learned that even though I would feel weak at times, all I had to do was take one step at a time. Close my eyes. Count to ten. Remember all the precious things in life I cherished, and let him take control.

Everything was under control, I had it all planned out. My week was perfectly squeaky organized. Procrastination had taken a terrible blow that month until a huge pandemic turn of events forced me to change things a bit. It made me look into myself more intently. It made me appreciate my family, my wonderful grandparents that inspire me to constantly reinvent myself into greatness. It made me even more sure of the decisions I had made until now, and made me wonder if I could make wiser decisions for tomorrow.

STAY HOME, STAY SAFE!!

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Lidia Krüger Braconnot is an adventurer and a storytelling enthusiast. Having lived in many different places, she now lives in Brazil, where she is an English teacher for all ages. She is 21 years old with a dream of expressing in beautiful detail what life is about, hoping to reach out to people in a comical and lighthearted way.

A Decade Later: Where is the Great Emergence Now?

In a previous blog, I introduced two key images from Phyllis Tickle’s The Great Emergence. In this blog, I engage the book critically and reflect on how its ideas are standing the test of time. Twelve years since the books’ publication, to what extent they continue to shed light in our current moment and to what extent they need adjusting? It is unfortunate that Phyllis Tickle is no longer with us to engage in dialogue. May she rest in peace with her savior. Yet, I pay homage to her legacy by engaging with it faithfully.

Reformation, Counter-Reformation And Technology

The Great Emergence claims that Christianity is undergoing a reformation. Is that really true? To answer this question we must first better understand our historical moment. That is, screen technologies have enabled not just the fast dissemination of information but an unprecedented democratization of truth. Let me explain. We live in a world where competing views of the world can co-exist without being settled by an external authoritative force. There is no-longer one source of truth legitimized by political or financial power. Instead, in a world of small screens, individuals are custom-making their reality by the minute.

This development is rather complex, one that would require multiple blogs to fully explain. Yet, the point I am trying to make is that people with diametrically opposing views can be physically side-by-side while living in different worlds. Even as the same historical events touch them, their framework of reference is so different that they might as well be living in alternative realities. That is, this is not just about seeing things differently but fundamentally experiencing them differently.

What that means is that we have no longer one historical moment but a multiplicity of parallel narratives. Hence, one can’t no longer simply state that the church is undergoing a process of Reformation. Instead, what you have are currents of reform and preservation living parallel and at times colliding against each other. In short, one can speak of both a Reformation and a Counter-Reformation happening side by side within the Christian community in our time.

The Swirling Center and Secularization

In a previous blog, I explored the book’s metaphor of a swirling center to explain what was happening in North American Christianity. The Great Emergence spoke of a center in which people were mixing different elements of the diverse segments of the faith. Yet, this metaphor is limited in that it suggests a mixing of elements internal to Christianity only. It does not account for when Christian groups are going outside the household to find inspiration.

For example, churches that now offer yoga in their premises, a recent increased interest in mindfulness among mainline churches and the incorporation of psychological knowledge and techniques into evangelical counseling ministries. It also fails to account for the integration of science and theology and current reflection on technology. These are all examples where Christian groups are interacting with outside agents in search of wisdom.

I would characterize this mixing with outside elements as part of the irresistible pull of secularism on religious communities of all faiths. When saying secularism, I do not mean anti-religious per se but instead as outside of traditional religious bounds. The term is there to describe human activities that occur external to religious frameworks. In that, and here is an important point, it does not mean anti-Christian necessarily. In other words, forces of secularization are not destroying the Christian message but forcing it to be re-framed in new terms. I will speak more about that in future blogs.

The Dismantling of Organized Religion

Can we even speak today of an emerging Christianity? This may strike as a paradoxical statement given that I have devoted the last four blogs to the this phenomenon. But the question is less about recognizing the inevitable shifts in Christianity and more about whether what is emerging is Christianity at all. Is this an emergence of new Christianity or a whole different thing altogether?

In the previous paragraph I spoke of secularism not destroying but re-shaping Christianity. Yet, could it be that it is changing it to such an extent where it can no longer be a religion or faith as originally idealized? To be honest, I don’t really know the answer to this question. Instead, what I see this as an open question to which the answer is unfolding each day. The future of Christianity will hinge upon how we answer it.

Here is where I move on to another seminal work on this topic. Namely, Diana Buttler Bass book Christianity After Religion. If Phyllis Tickle framed well the crisis, Diana Butler Bass offers glimpses of where it is going. She recognizes that the long term effects of secularization represents a wholesale shift of Christianity from religion to spirituality. How is that happening? That is what I would like to explore in the next blogs.

Jesus Christ: Divine Healer but Mediocre Carpenter

I love the meme above! So much so, that it inspired me to write this blog. This will be different from my usual posts that tend to focus on theology, technology and science. Instead, I offer here a personal reflection. It is not inspired in a biblical passage per se but on the idea suggested above. Namely, that Jesus was a mediocre carpenter. Judging by the chair and Joseph’s thoughts, Jesus decision to go to ministry had more to it than simply being the son of God.

An enduring claim of Christian tradition is that Jesus is fully human and fully divine. Why is that? The Church fathers did not arrive at that overnight. It was borne out of a long process that included disputes, prayer, endless councils and a few heretics that helped steer Christian theology towards truth. What is unclear, however, is how this dual nature worked together in Jesus’ time on earth. On that question, the only issue the church was concerned with was to state that Jesus could have sinned but did not.

Furthermore, the Gospel writers don’t help on this question either. In all four gospels we get very little about Jesus’ life prior to his ministry. Apart from birth narratives and few childhood anecdotes, we really get nothing from that formative time of Jesus life. This leaves us today to sheer speculation. That is what I proceed to next.

What does it mean to be divine-human?

Setting the question of sinfulness aside, I would like to speculate precisely about that period when Jesus was , between the age of 12 and 30 years of age, not fully into his calling but maturing as a person. I want to take the suggestion from the meme above, namely that Jesus was a mediocre carpenter, while still holding faithful to the church confession that he was both divine and human. Does a mediocre carpenter fit into this picture? I think that depends a lot about how we think of humanity and divinity.

My first impulse for many years was simply to reject this possibility. In my mind, sinless humanity meant perfection. That is, it wasn’t just that Jesus resisted temptations for cardinal sins but that he was literally perfect. Hence, I would have rejected such suggestion and instead would have speculated that the son of God was an excellent carpenter. Probably, the best of his kind who ran a successful business only to leave it all for ministry when the time came. He knew all along carpentry was not his “calling” but because of his perfect nature, he could not help himself but do an excellent job.

Because we have no way of knowing, this could very well be true. Yet, now I wonder if my previous assumptions were actually undermining Jesus’ humanity. Does a divine-human nature really mean perfection not just in doing what is right but also in ability, talent and competence? Could God be well represented by a lousy carpenter? Could the very idea of perfection be a false assumption of God’s nature?

The Mediocre Carpenter

Surprisingly, now the thought of a mediocre carpenter actually draws me closer to Jesus. Let me explain. First, for full disclosure, I am terribly challenged with manual labor. No, this is not an excuse to get out of hard work. I really suck at it. I am grateful to live in an age where one can make a living with their brain rather than their hands. Also, it goes without saying that I admire all those enlightened human beings who have a gift of crafting things with their hands. In an age of computers and automation, their gift is being undermined which is a sad development.

Yet, the thought of Jesus as a mediocre carpenter is not just appealing because I can relate to sucking at carpentry. To me it has a deeper meaning. It means that the human-divine being was truly subject to limitations. This was not just a statement of basic human needs. It included limitations in ability, talent and competence. It means that God was comfortable inhabiting a less than perfect body and mind.

Furthermore, it could suggest that Jesus did not always know his calling in ministry. Maybe, he too had to struggle through the arduous road of maturity that we all go through. Maybe he started off thinking he would be a good carpenter like his dad only to see God call him through his failure to be a good one. This also sounds a lot like my own journey towards calling. One where failure was more clarifying than success, pain more profitable than joy.

Human Frailty is not a Sin

My point here is not to paint a Jesus that looked like me, sharing my own experiences. While that could have its value, it undermines the deeper truth of this reflection. The mediocre carpenter is not simply an image to make us feel good about ourselves. It is a step towards de-coupling divinity from perfection. It is a step further in taking seriously God’s act of incarnation. It was not just in the humble manger but also in the limited human being that God chose to dwell.

To me this amplifies the message of God’s salvation through Jesus. The point of the cross was not simply to show our dependency on God to fix us and this world even as both are part of salvation. It was also to include an affirmation that human frailty is good enough for God. Frailty, limitation, imperfections are not sin. They are part of nature that we learn to accept and learn from. They are the very conduits for growth and even revelation of who God is.

This week, as you are working from home or homeschooling your kids (or doing both at the same time), remember the mediocre carpenter. In the times where you mess up, lose our cool, grow discouraged or simply gets gripped with anxiety – know that the mediocre carpenter is also the divine healer. He likes to meet us in our worse, is comfortable with our frailty and sanctifies it with his divinity.

He also says that it is ok to mess up every now and then.

The Great Emergence: How Decay Precedes Renewal

In previous blogs, I discussed compelling traits of an emerging Christianity and illustrated how these traits were showing up in the global church through an example in Brazil. In this blog, I describe and engage with key ideas from Philis Tickle’s book, The Great Emergence. One cannot speak of emerging Christianity without engaging with this seminal work. The Great Emergence, published in 2008, lays an illuminating historical framework to what we now are calling emerging Christianity.

Why is this book so influential on this topic? We like stories that connect the dots and show how the past correlates to the present, providing directions of where the future may go. Tickle does that well by convincingly showing how Christianity in North America is experiencing nothing short of a reformation. Furthermore, through compelling images and well-researched trends, the book gifted us with language to describe the ongoing dialogue over the essence of the Christian faith in North American soil. In short, It helps clarify this tumultuous time we are living in.

Undergoing a Rummage sales

Tickle argues that every 500 years, the Christian church goes through a process of renewal. She describes it as a “rummage sales” where the community scans the attic to get rid of items no longer needed. In my neck of the woods, this is often called a “garage sale.” The idea is that the institution goes through a process of reevaluating its beliefs, doctrines and practices. For example, in the last “rummage sales” Martin Luther and others questioned the validity of selling indulgences. Hence, this practice was one of these items “sold,” giving way to new ideas and practices for relating with the divine.

Furthermore, by placing our historical moment alongside these great shifts in he church, she is also arguing that the process has been ongoing for at last 200 years. That is, considering a larger historical context, she identifies important trends that lead us to our current predicament. It is not like all of a sudden a group of Christians decided to complain about the church’s shortcomings. Instead, she sees the process as part of an enduring tradition of renewal in the church.

For example, one of the first blows to the authority of Scripture was the American Civil War over the issue of slavery. When Christians were willing to take arms against each other over an issue that the Bible was ambiguous on, that eroded the overall trust in its authority. This painful historical experience invited questions many dared not ask before.

She also points to the AA (Alcoholic Anonymous) 12-steps program as a marker for the shifting from religion to spirituality. By allowing its adherents to pray to a “higher power of their own choosing,” AA introduced language for a generic faith untethered from religious doctrine. One no longer needed to belief in a God but only acknowledge the existence of a larger entity outside one-self. This further deepened the democratization of belief in the American religious market. The group essentially de-coupled the spiritual parts of Christianity from its religious roots.

Through multiple examples, The Great Emergence describes a process in which Americans exchanged traditional Christian beliefs and practices for new alternatives. In her view, the Pre-modern framework of the biblical faith was ill-equipped to answer questions arising from a fast modernizing world. As this inadequacy amplified through technological and scientific advances, Americans looked to find meaning from other sources.

The Swirling Center

To me, the most compelling portion of The Great Emergence is where she speaks of a swirling center. She uses it as a metaphor to explain how this emerging Christianity came about in the American religious context. Let me set up the metaphor first to better explain how it works. Tickle divides the many Christian denominations into a quadrilateral of four groups: Liturgicals, Social Justice Christians, Renewalists and Conservatives.

For those unfamiliar with these terms, let me describe what they mean. Liturgicals are Mainline Protestants (Presbyterians, Episcopalians, Methodists) and Catholics whose churches emphasize formal worship with communion every week, recited prayers and hymnbooks. Social Justice Christians, often found in mainline churches, tend to be politically progressive emphasizing service and activism over religious rituals.

Renewalists are the fastest growing segment of the global church often associated with the Pentecostal movement. They tend to emphasize experience (whether through prayer, music and the belief in miracles) over doctrine and rituals. Conservatives is the dominant group within the Evangelical fold who emphasize evangelism and often align with right-wing political positions.

Proceeding further, she proposes a forming center where communities borrow from other quadrants in order to transform their own practices as shown in the picture below:

Taken from pg 136 of *The Great Emergence*

That is where you have evangelical (Conservative) churches getting into social justice issues; Liturgicals holding healing services (inspired by Renewalists); Conservative Evangelicals looking for meaning in the spiritual disciplines (inspired by Liturgicals); Renewalists aligning themselves closely with right-wing political positions (inspired by Conservatives). These are just a few examples that illustrate this swirling center where communities interact with the different quadrants. They do that in order to fill the gaps that their quadrants’ dominant tradition left behind.

The swirling center is prevalent in non-denominational congregations that, by default, draw people that grew up in different quadrants. As Renewalists, Conservatives, Liturgicals and Social Justice Christians join informal networks and alliances, they naturally learn from each other building new combinations of practices. The result is an overall blending of traditions which often characterizes the emerging church.

Conclusion

Indisputably, Christianity is undergoing profound change in the North American continent. However, the overwhelming sentiment towards these developments among the faithful is one of grief over what is being lost. Phylis Tickle’s argument that we are experiencing reformation instills hope. What is happening is not simply decay but death before resurrection. The rummage sales is here to throw out unnecessary artifacts from tradition so Christians can experience God through new pathways. The turmoil is not just about deconstruction but a first step in reconstruction.

Furthermore, Tickle also suggests that this reformation is bringing Christians together. The swirling center is facilitating a cross pollination never seen before in history. The sectarianism inherited from the Reformation 500 years ago is being corrected. Innovation is not coming from any particular corner of the Christian household but in the center where they all meet. Hence, she suggests that underneath all this turmoil lies the hand of a transformative God longing to bring his children together.

Looking for the Bright Side in the Corona Pandemic

I would like to step aside from my usual lane of writing to reflect on how the Corona pandemic is affecting us in unexpected ways. As I write this from the US, my kids will be homeschooling starting on Monday while myself and many other co-workers will be working from home. To be fair, I already worked from home but having the kids at home with limited choices of public places to go will certainly be a change in routine. I am also blessed to have my wife be a stay-home mom which makes our change in routine less dramatic.

Yet, I can only imagine how many other families, especially those where both parents work are coping with this new situation. Rarely have I seen a global event have such wide-spread routine-braking impact like this one. Certainly local communities have experienced much worse tragedies, yet, their impact was more localized.

With that said, I would like to join others in the blogosphere who are choosing to shed light on the upside of this crisis. By doing so, I don’t mean to trivialize the suffering of those affected by the virus or the disruptions stemming from it. Quite the opposite, I would hope that what I say here will signal that their suffering is not in vain. Maybe this is the crisis that will bring us together in surprisingly beneficial ways.

Grateful for Technology

I am thankful for the technology available to us in this time. Those facing the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1918 were not as lucky. Over tens of millions died and millions more had their lives severely disrupted. I am grateful for communication technologies that have allowed news of this virus to spread quickly. Government and other institutions that undergird our society had the ability to coordinate with some lead time.

In spite of the misinformation spread through social media, this vehicle also brought quality and accurate information to the general public. “Flattening the curve,” a term only familiar to statisticians, soon became popular jargon to explain why we need to practice “social distancing.” In fact, many of the voluntary closures are not result of top-down management mandates but the collective action of an intelligently informed population. We quickly learned that to love our neighbor, especially the elderly, meant to stay away physically.

Furthermore, I am grateful for screen and phone technologies that now allow a large portion of the population to work or study remotely. Businesses, schools and government organization were able to quickly pivot to a remote workforce diminishing the already pervasive impact in the economy. To be fair, it is still very likely the global economy will enter a recession but it could have been much worse. As many become homeschoolers and remote workers, society does not have to stop completely.

The Advent of Global Cooperation

Rarely have I seen such display of global cooperation as in this crisis. Governments are talking to each other, businesses are offering paid-sick leave even when not required, schools are offering lunches even in days they are closed and neighbors are offering to buy groceries for those who cannot do it for themselves.

In American politics, we have experienced even a limited time of bipartisan cooperation to address this crisis. Corona is bringing together even the left-most Democrat with the right-most Republicans. They are realizing that their petty differences must recede when our whole livelihood is at stake. Certainly the federal response to the crisis could have been much more swift and effective but fortunately I see a society rising to shore up for the deficiencies of governmental action.

Even more encouraging has been the responsible self-quarantining of high-profile leaders, showing by example what we can all do to mitigate the Corona virus’ impact. From Justin Trudeau to Senator Ted Cruz, leaders are stepping up with their personal lives encouraging many to follow suit. Furthermore, Delta CEO announced that he would forgo his salary for 6 months in order to contain layoffs from this crisis. These are all examples of leadership that are worth celebrating.

Hope in Unexpected Places

Many have now heard about the singing in the streets in quarantined towns in Italy. People who are now confined to their homes found unexpected ways to show solidarity to each other. They can’t meet but their voices can connect them through empty space. It only highlights the fact that we humans are wired for community. We may often fight but we can’t live isolated from each other.

Apparently, Earth is grateful for this virus too. CO2 transmissions have fallen drastically globally as people self-quarantine or and avoid public gatherings. In a surprising twist, a deadly virus to humans is proving to be life giving to our beloved dirt home. My wife even speculated that this virus was simply Mother Nature screaming at us to emit less pollution and slow down global warming. She may well be right. This may be Earth’s plot to stop our insatiable pursuit of destructive technological progress.

Indeed, the Corona pandemic will continue to affect us in unexpected and enduring ways. Above all, this crisis is forcing us to stop, rest and do less. It could have paradigm shifting effects in how we relate to each other especially through cyberspace. I am particularly curious on its impact in the thousands of churches that will be holding services online in this period of social distancing. Could cyber connection become a dominant form of communicating ideas and enacting rituals? Could virtual church become part of mainstream rather than a fringe movement?

It is too early to say. Yet, my encouragement to all reading is to look for the opportunities arising from this crisis. Life will be different for a while but it may very well be a lot more beautiful than you expected.

Emerging Christianity Goes South: Pastor Parades in Rio’s Carnaval

In the last two blogs, I described major traits of an emerging Christianity. I talked about how believers were finding ways to live out their faith outside prescribed boundaries of institution and tradition. Yet, the best way to describe this movement is by showing how it is being lived out in action. I was elated to learn how a recent developments in my native Brazil do exactly that. In this blog, I want to show how Pastor Henrique Viera’s participation in this year’s Carnaval (Fat Tuesday celebration) best illustrate this emerging Christianity. It also comes to show that this is not confined to the centers of the West in North America and Europe but is finding creative outlets in the Christian South.

Reproduction from Twitter

Carnival as an Act of Decolonial Subversion

For the English reader unfamiliar with Carnaval, let me introduce you to its origins. Imagine you are a member of the First Nations living in the Americas for centuries when European colonizers arrive. They slowly take over your land. Yet not satisfied with that, they also decide to impose their culture on you. Eventually they bring African slaves, people steeped in their own culture themselves, that now are forced into a new land through lifelong servitude.

They start teaching you their religion through imposed holidays. They introduce to you the concept of Lent, which is a 40 day (roughly six weeks) period of penitence in preparation for Easter. Supposedly Easter, is a great celebration worth waiting for. Yet, given Europeans poor ability to celebrate and master skills on guiltying, you quickly realize this was more of a ploy for social control than a true celebration.

One day, they talk about Fat Tuesday. That is, in the day before the Catholic church reminds you of your eventual death, they offer you a brief period of respite where you can indulge yourself. Understanding that Lent is an extended period of self-denial, the church recognizes the need to temporarily let you be free to do whatever you want. The native American look to the African slave and say: that’s our chance!

They flip the script on the whole religious celebration and decide to focus on that Tuesday. In that day, for a brief moment, they could be free. They decide that the short indulgence should be the focus. In the absence of of truly festive Easter, they will take the license to “sin” and do it in great style. Eventually the Tuesday becomes a 5 day event where people parade in the streets and as the poets would say, happiness reigns. The colonized flipped the script on the colonizer, appropriate a brief pause before penitence and transform it into weeklong all-out celebration. Hence, you get Carnaval.

Protestants Opt Out of This Party

Protestants are late-comers to this party. They come to Brazil in the mid-19th century and take a modest foothold. It isn’t until the 20th century that Protestantism, through Evangelicalism and Pentecostalism, would transform Brazilian religious environment. In the positive side, they came mostly free of the colonial baggage. Instead, Brazilians perceive them as an alternative to Catholicism.

Yet, North American evangelical missionaries with Puritan roots were quickly scandalized by Carnaval. The amount of skin shown was too tempting to these North American, mostly male, missionaries who quickly condemned the feast. Even as Evangelicalism indigenized, this initial rejection took hold. This is where they started the custom to disengage and skip the whole thing altogether.

By taking this approach, most churches and protestant theologians would rarely engage with the celebration and its decolonial roots. Instead, they considered it exhibit “A” evidence of a fallen world brimming with sin. In other words, it represented everything Christianity wanted you to stay away from. If anything, it only reinforced a other-wordly, personal morality-focused theology imported from North America. In rejecting the celebration altogether, evangelicals also missed the opportunity to influence it towards an alternative that could curb its sexualized excesses while still affirming its joyful components.

Preaching the Gospel in Mangueira’s Parade

The last two sections gives a brief context of the magnitude of what happened this year. When Pr. Henrique Viera paraded in the Mangueira’s parade, he consciously challenged the dominant long-lasting narrative of Carnaval being a celebration off-limits to faithful Christians. While I am emphasizing the pastor’s participation here, none of that would have happened without the inspired and prophetic theme song of Mangueira’s parade this year.

The main event of Carnaval is a yearly parade where samba schools from poor areas of the city compete for that year’s title in the Sapucai. Each school develops an original theme song, floats, costumes and a lot of samba choreographies to go with it. This year, Mangueira chose to center their parade on “the Jesus of the people.” In their own words, they wanted to show a Christ who had “a woman’s body and native American blood.”

This was not a thoughtless attempt to offend religious sensibilities through perverting Christianity’s main symbols. Instead, it was a political statement. Following along liberation theology roots, they wanted to show how Christ is present in the victimized of our age. It was an act of protest against the forces that have robbed the Brazilian nation of an equitable future. Hence, they shockingly declare that these were the same forces that killed the Nazarene 2,000 years ago.

This is why the pastor’s act was so significant. The Protestant new comer, inspired by Catholic liberation theology, participated in the Pagan feast of Carnaval in order to highlight a central aspect of the Christian message. The parade symbolizes a bridge between Catholic, Evangelical and the colonized joining in to speak out for justice. This to me is a great example of an emerging Christianity, one that is willing to stand in solidarity with the oppressed outside the gates of institutional boundaries while still proclaiming the essential truths of the gospel.

Learning to Breathe and Stretch: Yoga as a Spiritual Practice

Greatly encouraged by my lovely wife, I decided to start taking Yoga classes in the local gym this year. I must say my first classes were long painful lessons in my body’s inflexibility. Yet, as I stuck with it, I come to enjoy it and sense an impact not just in my physical but also mental and spiritual health. In this blog, I reflect on how practicing Yoga as little as twice a week has come to be an important practice in my spiritual walk.

I Suck at Yoga and that’s Good

For starters, I am not the athletic type. I would much rather read than go to the gym. Yes, I am a bona fide nerd who realized I was more than a head on a stick. Recently, I’ve been reluctantly taking on physical exercise because I know it is good for me. It feels like eating raw vegetables. As I get older, I realize that sedentary behaviors won’t help me live long. Also, I come to enjoy the endorphins that get released after an exercise session.

It goes without saying that my flexibility is fairly limited. In class, doing some of the poses move muscles I didn’t even know I had. Furthermore, I still cannot tell left from right without looking at my hands. So, when the teacher describes the next pose, it might as well be Greek. I get by through watching more advanced practitioners beside me. Often times, I find myself turning right when everybody else it turning left. That is when I delicately and slowly correct my position.

Needless to say, it is a humbling experience to join a class where people are lot more advanced than I am. As I am straining to balance or simply stretch, I am surrounded by master Yogis who turn their bodies into pretzels. That is when I think to myself: “Are you fu&%$ing kidding me?” Yes, lately most of my spiritual experiences have been accompanied by under-breath cussing.

I say this not just to amuse but to highlight the fact that doing something I suck at is actually a good thing. It serves to humble me while also destroying my illusions of competency and self-reliance. Slowly, I am learning to embrace the suckiness as I drench my mat with sweat while others stretch much further with little effort. Besides, I am not setting out to be a master yogi. I just want to learn to breathe.

Yoga is not Just Exercise

I suspected that there was more to Yoga then uncomfortable stretches. This only became more clear as I started practicing it. The class starts and ends with mindfulness exercises where we are quieting ourselves and focused on breathing. This is no “transcendental meditation” but it is baby steps to help us connect mind and body. As mentioned above, now that this nerd is discovering that he is more than a head, connecting with the body is becoming an important centering activity. It is so easy to ignore our bodies are when we forget that we are above all breathing beings.

Often times I have experienced a strong sense of peace and calm after a class. I’ll move slower, be less worried and at times become a better human to my wife and kids. This has been a great antidote for the anxiety I feel on the weekends. Usually, my week is intense between family, work, reading and writing. Yet, when the weekend comes, I feel a bit lost not knowing what to do with myself. Hence, doing Yoga on Saturday mornings has really helped smooth out anxiety and help structure the weekend.

I also sense that the effects of it lingers. First, I usually feel sore for the rest of the day but it is a satisfying soreness. It is like I pride myself in making these muscles work. At times, I have also noticed being more aware of what is going on emotionally with myself and even be more present. For someone who often lives in the clouds of ideas and future plans, anything that helps me be in the present is a big positive.

Walking into Uncharted Territory

When I wonder why I didn’t try this before, I know exactly why. In my evangelical upbringing, Yoga was considered a dangerous practice from a competing religion. What I experience today could scarcely classify as that. My Yoga teacher does not emphasize its Hindu roots. Just like Chinese food in America, it is a westernized, secularized, watered down version of the original Hindu practice.

Yet, regardless of that, I still catch myself feeling jealous by the fact that it came from a different religion than Christianity. Why couldn’t our traditions figure this out? Why did we insist on head-knowledge practices that do little for the body? There is historical precedent for meditation in the practices of Middle Age Christian mystics. Yet, that is not the same as full body practice that helps connect mind, body and spirit. In view of this realization, I wish I had discovered this earlier.

In this spiritual journey, sometimes I am finding the answers outside of the gates of familiar Christian teachings. I don’t see this is an endorsement of Hinduism as a religions but a recognition that they know something we don’t. I would be spiritually poorer if I ignored their contribution and wisdom.

In all sincerity, I found that practicing Yoga has made me a healthier human being. In some ways, it has also helped my relationship with God. As I become more self-aware, I am also better able to hear the Spirit’s voice who often whispers quietly. That whisper can often be drawn out by the noises around and inside me. It is in learning to slow down and breath again that I am also finding my way back to the Giver of breath.

Compelling Traits of an Emerging Christianity: Part 2

In the previous blog, I outlined three traits of an emerging Christianity. In short, it is de-emphasizing heaven in order to do more on earth; it is integrating with science and finding its way back to nature; it is walking away from strict Monotheism in order to find PanEntheism. In this blog, I present three additional traits of this emerging Christian spirituality.

As expressed before, this is not a detached analysis or description of trends. Instead, it is a discovery as I find a fellow travelers who are undergoing a similar faith journey. Most certainly, these trends do not trace back to one movement or institution. Instead, it is more like a loose federation of communities doing reflection and arriving at similar conclusions.

Embracing the Unfamiliar Other

Undoubtedly, the most bitter fight within the Christian church over the last thirty years has been over LGBTQ issues. Mainline denominations have been torn apart, families come undone, congregations fractured over and lives have been lost through suicide over this issue. The conservative side has made opposition to same-sex marriage a political warring cry. Progressive congregations have also imposed their own political crusades over building ownership and bishop positions based on this issue.

We have all lost in this war and the casualties continue to mount. Yet, no one has suffered more than LGBTQ Christians who seek refuge in a household that either refuses to accept them as they are or turns them into a political commodity for righteous posturing. Regardless of these tendencies, LGBTQ are the unfamiliar other who are now at our footstep. How we respond says a lot more about true theology than all our biblical knowledge could express.

Thus, it is encouraging to see an emerging Christianity that stands with the LGBTQ community fighting prejudice and upholding their dignity in society regardless of how that fits or not into their theology. This standing with the other is not limited to this community but has extended to other marginalized groups. Whether it is fighting against sex trafficking, being a voice for refugees and undocumented immigrants, protesting with the me-too movement or declaring that black lives matter – there is an emerging Christianity who is learning to take on the burden of the oppressed.

The emerging movement is replacing national loyalties with a global citizenship that expresses solidarity with the downcast even at a cost of reputation, comfort or personal benefit. It is grounded in an understanding that us versus them is not the way of the cross. In Christ, there is only us and when one of us suffer, we all do. A passion that will only end when all God’s children are free from injustice, oppression and want.

I confess that acceptance of the LGBTQ community has been a long journey for me. Holding on to a traditional view of marriage was a strong conviction of mine based on centuries of Biblical interpretation. However, I now see that conviction as less important than upholding the humanity of LGBTQ people. Not only that, but I want to learn to love and celebrate their uniqueness as gifts from God. I may not fully understand it but believe in the call to accept them along with the call to stand in solidarity with them in their struggle for justice.

In a personal anecdote, recently I took to the streets to protest the Trump’s administration grievous travel ban that discriminated against refugees. At that point, when most of my fellow evangelical Christians either supported the ban or shrugged in indifference, it was a gay Christian friend who was willing to join me in that protest. As an immigrant, defending refugees was a personal matter, one that my friend took it as his own. Maybe I can learn from him to take his struggle for justice as my own as well.

Rejecting Violence as a Means to Power

Inspired in the legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr, emerging Christians are choosing the path of non-violence. As Christians question their role in supporting empire, American or otherwise, they are also learning to reject the its ways of violence. That is, it is not enough to stand with the oppressed but it is important to be mindful how to do it. Non-violent political resistance then becomes the antithesis to American militarism, one that continues to maintain a cozy relationship with the Christian church.

This theme is well represented in a network of Christian leaders that call themselves the red letter Christians. They seek to take the teachings of Jesus, oftentimes expressed in old Bibles by the use of red letters, above all other sections of Scripture. Counting with a diverse array of people such as Shane Clairbone , Tony Campollo, Rev Dr. William J Barber and Randy Woodley, they represent a new generation seeking to speak out for justice through non-violent protest.

Yet, this trend is not limited only to political movements but is gaining wide-spread acceptance not only in progress mainline congregations but also in evangelical ones. Pastors Greg Boyd and Brian Zahnd, influential evangelical preachers in their own right, emphasize that non-violence is at the heart of Christian discipleship. That is, it is not simply a tool to gain political power but should inform all aspects of our lifestyle. This became clear to me recently when watching a screening of J.E.S.U.S.A documentary. This is no longer a fringe idea of radical groups but it is starting to take hold in mainstream Christianity.

I confess this is the hardest trait for me to grapple with. A total commitment to non-violence goes against our evolutionary wiring of fight and flight. It is highly admirable but also extremely difficult to follow. I also fear what that would bring to any community that followed this at wholesale level. Would they be annihilated? The deal that Constantine offer the church, bless my empire and I’ll grant you protection, continues to be alluring till this day. I want to join my emergent Christians on this one but as a father and husband, the idea of giving up self-defense is a hard concept to embrace in this emerging Christianity. With that said, while this makes me uncomfortable it is hard to deny the centrality of non-violence in the life and teachings of Jesus.

Growing Detachment from the Institutional Church

This is probably one of the most striking traits of all. Unlike past movements in Christianity that often evolved into new institutional forms, this emerging Christianity is taking ground at the edge of institutional confines. It is blossoming in the church front yard and at times even outside its gates altogether.

Some have found community by meeting in pubs, living rooms, libraries and now, most importantly, through the vast virtual spaces of social media. I can honestly say that I have found more Christian community in some Facebook groups (I guess this tells my age!) than in any congregation I have been part of. Most certainly this does not replace flesh and blood fellowship. However, it certainly enhances and at times becomes a conduit for long-lasting friendship and fruitful face-to-face encounters. I now have some relationships that could not have started prior to the advent of social media.

This emerging spirituality have exploded the parish model that limited Christian community to 90 minutes where we stared at each other’s back of heads in auditoriums. It may include opportunities for gathering with others but it also includes reading books, participating in affinity groups with neighbors, listening to podcasts and wasting precious hours arguing over irreconcilable matters through Twitter. All of this is a way to experience community, now more and more independent from the tutelage of the institutional church.

I would like to discuss this more in detail in a follow up blog where I review Phyllis Tickle monumental book, The Great Emergence that 12 years ago gave language to this phenomenon. For now, it suffice it to say that this emerging Christianity is rising from the confines of religion into the open spaces of the public square. It is not always clean, orderly and far from perfect but it is most certainly beautiful.

Compelling Traits of An Emerging Christianity: Part 1

When you start off on a journey, it often feels lonely. You wrongly assume that you are the exception and everybody else is staying behind. As most often is the case, any spiritual journey starts with a crisis, an enduring dissatisfaction and a stinging sense of loss. One also feels a stranger in their familiar environment which incidentally can lead to believe that they are alone in experiencing this internal turmoil.

Hence it is refreshing and emboldening when that sojourner meets others undergoing the same struggle. It is no surprise that a significant portion of people like me, who grew up in evangelical homes, are now, even if at differing degrees, experiencing dislocation in their faith journeys.

People will react to a crisis on a myriad ways. Some will dig their heels holding stronger to familiar convictions, others will abandon them completely. A third group will try to find their way through this crisis by traversing the tension of holding on to past convictions while also opening themselves to new pathways. This is where I find myself. Thankfully, as I can now attest, I am not alone.

In this blog, I want to cover three main traits that are converging to form an emerging Christianity which this third group is seeking. I don’t know if one can speak of a movement yet but more of coalescing of streams that are finding commonalities in these three areas. In each one of them, Christians are rejecting false binary choices to embrace living in the tension of seemingly opposite poles. By holding themselves in those tension points, they are finding room to grow, hope and transcend.

Thinking Less of Heaven to Do more on Earth

Dr. N. T. Wright is likely the most influential bible scholar of our times. He is one of the few scholars that achieved pop star status while still being highly respected in academia. His books have become a staple for many wanting to better understand the New Testament the Christian faith in general. I had the privilege to see him speak once in Pasadena, when I was a student at Fuller.

After hearing his lecture, I was struck by how emphatic he was about challenging Christians to stop focusing on the after-life. The thrust of his argument through multiple books is that the early Christians were not looking for a disembodied heaven but yearning for that reality to come down to earth. While this is not in itself a novel point, it does get to the heart of a detour historical Christianity took in the last few centuries.

Inspired by NT Wright’s writings and others, I see an emerging Christian spirituality that is progressively de-emphasizing the afterlife to become more engaged in the here and now. To me, this has been nothing short of a life-changing. While still going to church, the focus of my service now has shifted to my family and my community. Whether it is volunteering in my kid’s school or other non-profits, giving to organizations that are doing humanitarian work to spending quality time with my children, my focus has changed.

This does not mean that I no longer believe in heaven or denounce any church affiliation. It just that it is no longer the exclusive avenue and focus of my service. I stopped worrying about trying to get more people in heaven and instead started to work to make earth more like heaven. I am also finding more meaning in these activities rather than seeing them as means to a more important spiritual end.

Integrating with Science to Find Nature

I have written before about the importance of theology engaging with science. There is growing interest in this intersection as seminaries bring scientists in for dialogue. Biologos, an organization started by a Christian Physicist and director of the National Institutes of Health, Francis Collins, is at the forefront of this movement. While still small, the trend has great potential. It starts by rejecting the false option between thinking and believing and forsaking the unproductive ideological battle over the origins of life. Once these steps are in place, the interaction between faith and science can yield exponential fruits.

This is not limited to seminaries and technical schools but is also taking shape in other ways. For example, there is an increased acceptance of mental health issues within the evangelical community. This became front and center a few years ago when megachurch pastor and best-selling author Rick Warren lost his son to suicide. As Christians become open to an area that in the past was seen through an exclusively religious lens, I see them growing in understanding and accepting the blessings of scientific inquiry. It is no longer a threat to faith but part of God’s action on earth.

To me, the integration with science has translated into a greater preoccupation with nature. The emergence of eco-theology, namely a theology that seeks to connect humans to God through the natural world, is another promising trend. Theological reflection must transcend the human-divine axis to include all living beings. This goes beyond creation care to recognizing God’s action through animals, plants and whole ecosystems. A vision that limits salvation to individual guilt removal is ill-equiped to face the challenges and questions of our age. Salvation must encompass the whole cosmos.

The theological encounter with nature is also not just limited to action to protect the environment. It must address the sinful alienation brought upon a technological vision that separates rather than integrates humans into their habitats. The path toward a new Christian spirituality must walk through the green pastures of nature and eventually arrive at PanEntheism.

From Strict Monotheism to PanEntheism

PanEntheism, not to be confused with pantheism, proclaims the reality of divine presence in the material world. Unlike pantheism that saw nature itself as God, Panentheism keeps God’s transcendence while also affirming God’s immanence. Forgive my theologese, what that means is that it declares God to be beyond this universe but also present in it: A God who is both distant but also near. Confusing? Good, theological thinking thrives in the uncomfortable tension between opposing ideas.

To be clear, this is not a move away from monotheism, but bringing monotheism closer to physical reality as prescribed in the first trait above. It is about taking religion from something “out there” to the dusty mess of daily living. Some theologians, such as Moltmann, have associated that presence more specifically with biology. That is, the Spirit of God is present anywhere there is life, intelligent or not. Yet, such view is not a recent novelty but goes back in history to Francis of Assisi and to Dutch reformed theologian and politician Abraham Kuyper.

When taken seriously, panEntheism can have paradigm shifting implications to the Christian faith. In a sense, it recognizes that even before there were sacred scriptures, God was moving and speaking through the natural world. On the one hand, it magnifies further the largesse of the Creator who stands outside (and in) time. On the other hand, it should caution us in our attempts to divide the world between insiders and outsiders of God’s club. Even a tradition that is 2,000 years old is only a speck in the history of the cosmos.

In my view, this does not diminish the revelation brought forth by the Christian faith, maybe, shall I humbly say, it only fulfills it. It complements it, bringing its implications further into its conclusion:

He is the image of the invisible God, the firstborn of all creation; for in him all things in heaven and on earth were created, things visible and invisible, whether thrones or dominions or rulers or powers—all things have been created through him and for him. He himself is before all things, and in him all things hold together.
Colossians 1:15-17