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Tag: workplace

Preparing for a Post-COVID-19 AI-driven Workplace

Are we ready for the change this pandemic will bring? Are we ready to encounter the accelerating threats to the workplace that were envisioned only years ahead? What can this pandemic teach us about being useful in the future where AI will continue to re-arrange the workplace?

Sign of Things to Come

As the coronavirus was spreading rapidly through Japan in March, workers in Sugito found a spiking sudden demand for hygiene products such as masks, hand sanitizers, gloves, and medical protection supplies.  To reduce the danger of contamination, the company that operates the center, Paltac, is engaging in a revolutionary idea. They are not just considering, but are already initiating hiring robots to replace human manufacturing, at least until social distancing is no longer needed.

“Robots are just one tool for adapting to the new normal.” Says Will Knight, senior writer for WIRED, in his article where he evaluates the Japanese pandemic situation, and how manufacturing Japanese companies are dealing with social distancing.

Some think that this is an unmatched opportunity to adapt and deliver in the AI community. Especially medical Robo tech – if they had been sought out more thoroughly beforehand, maybe the present outcome wouldn’t have been so catastrophic. Science journalist Matt Simon illustrates this in his article, and reassures that: “Evermore sophisticated robots and AI are augmenting human workers”

The greater question is will AI replace or augment workers? Our future may depend on the answer to this question.

A Bigger Threat than a Virus?

In 2016 Harvard scientists released a study on “12 risks that threaten human civilization.” In it, they, not only outline the risks but also show ways that we can prepare for them. Prophetically, the study cites a global pandemic at the top of the list. It correctly classified it as “more likely than assumed” and they could not have been more correct. We now wish global leaders had heeded their warnings.

What other risks does the study warn us about? The scientists consider Artificial Intelligence as one of the major, but unfortunately the least of all comprehended global risks. In spite of its limitless potential, there is a grave risk of such intelligence developing into something uncontrollable.

It is not just a probability, but a questionable enigma of when. It could bring significant economic disruption, predicting that AI could copy and surpass human proficiency in speed and performance. While current technology is nowhere near this scenario, the mere possibility of this predicament should cause us to pause for reflection.

Yet, even as this pandemic has shown, the greatest threats are also the biggest opportunities for doing good in the world.

Learning to Face the Unknown

Our very survival depends on our ability to stay awake, to adjust to new ideas, to remain vigilant and to face the challenge of change.

Martin Luther King Jr.

Change is inevitable. Whether coming by exquisite and unique technology or a deadly virus, it will eventually disrupt our ideal routines. The difference is in how we position ourselves to face these adversities alongside those who we love and are responsible for. If humans can correctly predict tragedies, how much more can we do to avoid them!

The key to the future is the ability to adapt in the face of change. People that only react to what is “predictable” will be replaced by robots or algorithms. For example, as a teacher, I studied many things but never thought that I would have to become a Youtuber.  No one ever taught me about the systems to help me access via the internet. I was not trained for this! Yet, because of this pandemic, I now have to teach through creating videos and uploading them online. I am learning to become a worker of the future.

May we use this quarantined year as an incubating opportunity to prepare ourselves for a world that will not be the same.  May we train ourselves to endure challenges, and also to see the opportunities that lie in plain sight. This is my hope and prayer for all of you.

STAY HOME, STAY SAFE, STAY SANE

AI Impact on Work: Latest Research Spells Both Hope and Concern

In a recent blog I explored Mckinsey’s report on the AI impact for women in the workplace. As the hype around AI subsides, a clearer picture emerges. The “robots coming to replace humans” picture fades. Instead, the more realistic picture is one where AI automates distinct tasks, changing the nature of occupations rather than replacing them entirely. Failure to understand this important distinction will continue to fuel the misinformation on this topic.

A Novel Approach

In this blog, I want to highlight another source that paints this more nuanced picture. The MIT-IBM Watson released a paper last week entitled “The Future of Work: How New Technologies Are Transforming Tasks.” The paper was significant because of its innovative methodology. It is the first research to use NLP to extract and analyze information on tasks coming from 170 million online job postings from 2010-2017 in the US market. In doing so, it is able to detect changes not only in the volume but also in job descriptions themselves. This allows for a view on how aspects of the same job may change over time.

The research also sheds light on how these changes translate into dollars. By looking at compensation, the paper can analyze how job tasks are valued in the labor market and how this will impact workers for years to come. Hence, they can test whether changes are eroding or increasing income for workers.

With that said, this approach also carry some limitations. Because they look only at job postings, they have no visibility into jobs where the worker has stayed consistently for the period analyzed. It is also relying on proposed job descriptions which often time do not materialize in reality. A job posting represents a manager’s idea for the job at that time. Yet circumstances around the position can significantly change making the actual job look very different. With that said, some data is better than perfect data and this researches open new avenues of understanding into this complex phenomenon.

Good News: Change is Gradual

For the period analyzed, researches conclude that the shift in jobs has been gradual. Machine learning is not re-shaping jobs a neck-breaking speed as some may have believed. Instead, it is slowly replacing tasks within occupations over time. On average, the worker is asked to perform 3.7 less tasks in 2017 as compared to 2010. As the researchers dig further, they also found a correlation between suitability to machine learning and faster replacement. Tasks more suitable to machine learning do show a larger average of replacement, at around 4.3 tasks while those not suited for machine learning show 2.9 average replacement. In general, jobs are becoming leaner and machine learning is making the process go faster.

This is good news but not necessarily reassuring. As more industries adopt AI strategies the rate of task replacement should increase. There is little reason to believe what we saw in 2010-2017 will repeat itself in the next 10 years. What the data signal demonstrates is that the replacement of tasks has indeed started. What is not clear is how fast it will accelerate in the next years. The issue is not the change but the speed in which it happens. Fast change can be de-stabilizing for workers and it is something that requires monitoring.

Bad News: Job Inequality Increased

If the pace is gradual, its impact has been uneven. Mid-income jobs are the worst hit by task replacement. As machine learning automate tasks, top tier middle income jobs move to the top income bracket while jobs at the bottom of the middle income income move to the low income jobs. That is, occupations in the low tier of the middle become more accessible to workers with less education or technical training. At the top, machine learning replace simpler tasks and those jobs now require more specialized skills.

This movement is translating into changes in income. Middle jobs has seen an overall erosion in compensation while both high and low income jobs have experienced an increase in compensation. This polarizing trend is concerning and worthy of further study and action.

For now, the impact of AI in the job market is further exacerbating monetary value of different tasks. The aggregate effect is that jobs with more valued tasks will see increases while those with less value will either become more scarce or pay less. Business and government leaders must heed to these warnings as they spell future trouble for businesses and political unrest for societies.

What about workers? How can these findings help workers navigate the emerging changes in the workplace? That is the topic for my next blog

AI and Women at the Workplace: A Sensible Guide for 2030

Even a few years in, the media craze over AI shows no sign of subsiding. The topic continues to fascinate, scare and befuddle the public. In this environment, the Mckinsey report on AI and Women at the workplace is a refreshing exception. Instead of relying on hyperboles, they project meaningful but realistic impact of AI on jobs. Instead of a robot apocalypse, they speak of a gradual shifting of tasks to AI-enabled applications. This is not to say that the impact will be negligible. Mckinsey still projects that between 40 – 160 M women may need to transition into new careers by 2030 worldwide. This is not a small number when the low end accounts for roughly population of California! Yet, still much less than other predictions.

Impact on Women

So why do a report based on one gender? Simply put, AI-driven automation will affect men and women differently in the workplace as they tend to cluster in different occupations. For example, women are overly represented in clerical and service-oriented occupations, all of which are bound to be greatly impacted by automation. Conversely, women are well-represented in health-care related occupations which are bound to grow in the period forecasted. These facts alone will assure that genders will experience AI impact differently.

There are however, other factors impacting women beyond occupation clusters. Social norms often make it harder for women to make transitions. They have less time to pursue training or search for employment because they spend much more time than men on house work and child care. They also have lower access to digital technology and participation in STEM fields than men. That is why initiatives that empower girls to pursue study in these areas are so important and needed in our time.

The main point of the report is not that automation will simply destroy jobs but that AI will move opportunity between occupations and geographies. The issue is less of an inevitable trend that will wipe out sources of livelihood but one that will require either geographic mobility or skill training. Those willing to make these changes are more likely to survive and thrive in this shifting workplace environment.

What Can You Do?

For women, it is important to keep your career prospects open. Are you currently working in an occupation that could face automation. How can you know? Well, think about the tasks you perform each day. Could they be easily learned and repeated by a machine? While all of our jobs have portions we wish were automated, if that applies to 60-80% of your job description, then you need to re-think your line of work. Look for careers that are bound to grow. That may not may simply learning to code but also consider professions that require human touch and cannot be easily replaced by machines. Also, an openness to moving geographically can greatly improve job prospects.

For parents of young girls, it is important to expose them to STEM subjects early on. A parent encouragement can go a long way in helping them consider those areas as future career options. That does not mean they will become computer programmers. However, early positive experiences with these subjects will give them the confidence later in life to pursue technical occupations if they so choose. A big challenge with STEM is the impression that it is hard, intimidating and exclusive to boys. The earlier we break these damaging paradigms the more we expand job opportunity for the women of the future.

Finally, for the men who are concerned about the future job prospects of their female loved ones, the best advice is get more involved in housework and child rearing. In short, if you care about the future of women in the workplace, change a diaper today and go wash those dishes. The more men participate in unpaid house work and child rearing the more women will be empowered to pursue more promising career paths.