The previous blog dealt with macro-trends. They help frame the future by establishing parameters that undergird the external common factors that all humanity must face. Now it is time to zoom in a little closer to our topic. Our task is to paint futures of the intersection between AI and faith. In this blog, we are looking at the faith side of the equation and primarily focusing on the future of Christianity.
With that said, much of what is said here could apply to other religions and even non-religious beliefs. In fact, with the rise of the nones, the latter may very well become a viable option for millions. In fact, one could see the rise of secular movements around human rights and social justice as an offshoot of progressive Christianity, albeit with severed ties to religion. That is, in projecting a future of Christianity, we may be touching on the future of spirituality that has transcends religion.
Global Trends
I would like to recognize the Global Christian History community for some help on this section. They pointed me to a wealth of resources that help us understand the development of Global Christianity while also pointing to some possible futures. They are also a great group for those interested in learning more about Global Christianity.
First, it is important to attend to statistics on the topic. While there are disagreements on the degree and speed of change, it is clear that the center of Christianity is moving away from Europe and North America towards the global South – Africa, Latin America, and Asia. In an interesting twist, the lands once evangelized by the North are now the ones leading growth and missionary efforts.
There is disagreement, however, around whether Christian growth will keep Muslim growth in check or whether the latter will overtake it to become the largest religious group in the world. A Pew Research 2015 report points to a Muslim majority future in 2015 while Gordon-Conwell Center of Global Christianity points to a 2050 where Christianity retains majority status. Regardless of who is right, Christianity’s relationship with Islam will continue to be a defining factor in Africa, South Asia (excluding India), and the Middle East. It will also play an important role in Europe which is slated to be 10-15% Muslim in the coming decades.
African and Asian Paths
The African continent will continue to be an engine for growth and vitality for Christianity. A growing population and nascent movements will ensure a continuous spread of religious practice and fervor throughout the continent will ensure that one in 3 Christians globally will be there in 2045. Even more interesting though is how African Christianity will look like. Current trends show a tilt towards indigenous movements which are giving Christian practice a true African flavor.
I also wonder about its impact in the West as migrant patterns continue to bring in millions of African Christians to Europe and North America. Immigrant churches will play a pivotal role in connecting the vibrant Christian south with a post-Christian Western societies. Furthermore, the African presence is already shaping the Anglican communion as the recent boycotts of Lambeth 2022 show.
The story in Asia is mixed with growing representation in countries like South Korea (Protestant) and the Philipines (Catholic). The biggest question mark is the future of Christianity in China. Will we see the continuation of a dual system of official and underground churches or will the government allow the latter to come out of the shadows? Either way, Christianity will continue to be an influential social force in this global power.
A Tale of Two Americas
The American continent(s) will likely follow diverging paths. North America’s decline in Christian religious identification is likely to continue if not even accelerate. There is some uncertainty here. Consider that in 2015, Pew Research predicted that 66% of people in the US would identify as Christians in 2050. A more recent 2021 PRRI estimate shows it at 69% in 2020! Certainly differences in methodology and margin of error. With that said, it is not unreasonable to assume that religious identification with Christianity is on an accelerated decline.
With that said, Christianity will continue to be a significant religious and political force in the United States for decades to come. However, the uncertainty is around whether the US will look more like Canada (55% Christian) or the American South (76% Christian). The deciding factor here will be more on the non-White minorities which by then will comprise the majority of the population.
As we look south of the Rio Grande, the factors are less about Christianity in general but the shift from Catholic to Protestant Christianity. In Brazil, for example, Protestants (Evangelicals) will likely surpass Catholics by the early 2030’s to become the largest religious group in the nation. That is a significant shift in the region that boasted a Catholic identity for nearly 500 years. It has significant political and social ramifications that we are yet to fully comprehend. For now, it suffices to say that evangelical support for Bolsonaro was decisive in the 2018 presidential election.
A Technology-Enabled Future
Above all, the rise of nones globally will be a defining factor for not just Christian identity but the nature of Christian worship (liturgy). A strong current against established religious organizations will give way to new expressions of the faith. The ubiquity of technology and its potent ability to establish connections independent of geography can foster innovation. That is, maybe the most interesting trends in Christianity will be less about numeric adherence and more about the transformation of faith practices. This movement represents a shift away from local congregations to a global spirituality that is shared in small groups mediated through telepresence technologies.
What will that look like? I recently attended a webinar that may spell a path for things to come. It was hosted by the New Wine Collective, an emerging group promising to re-think church. While more details are forthcoming, this looks like an app-enabled way of building face-to-face Christian community. This is not simply a “Facebook church” but more of a way to use technology to enable offline gatherings. Could we call this a personalized church model? Only time will tell. I am very curious to see where this goes.
One thing is certain, the future of Christianity will be more entangled with the development of emerging technologies in the decades to come. We have yet to conceive of metaverse-enabled liturgies. Could 5 G-enabled liturgies where a priest handles the sacrament remotely count as in-person mass? Don’t get me wrong – traditional church buildings will still exist for a long time. They will just be less essential for the life of faith.
