Joe Biden: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America (source: Joe Biden); User:TDKR Chicago 101 (clipping)Donald Trump: Shealah Craighead (source: White House)Сombination: krassotkin, CC BY-SA 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
As a data geek, I could not resist pouring over the early statistics coming out of this election. In previous blogs, I expressed my thoughts on the issues at stake. In this blog, I offer a brief summary of the main insights coming out of the data published on the election so far. Certainly, more data will come but there is enough already for some interesting points.
- Turnout was the highest in 120 years hovering around 67% of eligible voters.
- African Americans (87%), first-time voters (64%), and people under 30 (60%) voted overwhelmingly for Biden. 9 out of 10 African-American women voted for Biden, by far the largest alignment in the electorate.
- White evangelicals or born again (76%) and white with no college degree (67%) and white men (61%) voted overwhelmingly for Trump.
- From a regional perspective, Trump bested Biden in the South and Midwest while Biden won by larger margins in the East and West.
- Trump voters thought that the economy and public safety were the top issues in this election. Biden voters saw the pandemic and racial inequality as the most pressing issues.
- Nearly a 1/3 of Biden voters did so to oppose Trump rather than support Biden. This is an important statistic for the Democrats to keep in mind if they have any hope of keeping the presidency in 4 years.
- Biden won in every income level except those with $100K or more where Trump won by 12 points.
- For every moderate that voted for Trump, there were two who voted for Biden.
- Biden narrowly edged Trump in the suburbs: 50/48
- Compared to 2016, Biden was able to convince 3% more voters to switch from Trump than from Clinton. More importantly, Biden was the choice of 58% of those who did not vote in 2016 but decided to vote this time.
Note that it is still early to draw any definite conclusions but these numbers already paint an interesting picture of voter’s preference in 2020. As I reflect on these findings, I would like to highlight some main observations.
Voters want a balanced government
The blue wave did not materialize. In fact, Democrats lost seats in Congress though still retained a majority. The Senate is up for grabs as the country waits for Georgia to vote in a January runoff. What that means is enough voters rejected Trump at the top of the ballot but were not willing to commit to the Democrats elsewhere ballot choices. The majority of the electorate wants the party to work together even if the most radical factions continue to control the narrative and the campaign money.
Considering the lagging popularity of the president with the majority of the electorate and a Republican party that stood steadfastly behind him, it is surprising how the Democrats struggled in the house and senate races. These initial numbers suggest that the electorate is still hesitant to give a solid mandate. I think a lot of that is suburban voters who are wary of “defund the Police” rhetoric among Democrats. Others are concerned with a rise in Socialism, which however realistic a claim, was an effective GOP attack. This was especially true for voters making $100K or more, the only income group where Trump won by a decisive margin.
Biden won narrowly in those areas that continue to be the bellwether for American politics. While the cities and rural areas get the most attention for their opposing views, it is the suburbs that decide elections. It was demographic changes in two large Atlanta suburban counties (I live in one of them and would like to believe was part of that change) that turned the state blue for the first time since 92. Yet, this cannot be interpreted as a turn to progressive politics but more of a reaction against the worse incarnation of conservative politics reflected in Trumpism.
In short, Democrats have a long way to go if they want to keep these voters in the blue column. As point 8 above demonstrates, Biden won in large part by courting the moderate vote. The president-elect and his party have a monumental challenge ahead as they seek to balance appealing to moderates while keeping the progressive wing of the party happy.
Voters Lack Choices
While we celebrate the record turn out, it is important to highlight that close to 1/3 of eligible voters refused to participate. Furthermore, the high rate and is still below other industrialized nations. This is a remarkable finding considering the amount of media attention on this year’s contest. Some could attribute it to the Trump effect that brought new voters to the polls either to support or reject him. Hence, it is possible this turnout rate is not sustainable.
There was a lot of outcry about polarization in politics but the elephant (and donkey) in the room remains unaddressed. Voters still are under the tyranny of a duopoly that cannot represent the diversity of the American population. Unfortunately, there are no prospects of change as the two dominant parties have erected large barriers for new entrants. The only way to expand turn out is to open the political system to viable third and fourth parties. I was hoping moderate Republicans disgusted by Trump would take the lead. Instead, they opted to either support Biden or remain on the sidelines.
Until the system is reformed, turnout will continue to hit a ceiling of 66-70%. It is tragic that so many Americans who are eligible to vote do not have adequate representation. We are made poorer as a nation for it.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
